Ukraine Has Planted 20% of Expected Spring Crops So Far This Year, Says Ukrainian Ag Ministry

Even with the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, farmers in Ukraine have planted some 2.5 million hectares of spring-planted crops so far this year, 20% of expected area, according to the Ukrainian ag ministry.

The country has warned of a potential decline of 20% in plantings this year due to the Russian invasion, and reports quoted ag ministry officials as saying the drop could be 30% to 40% in the northern areas of the country as mines will need to be removed. In areas that are temporarily occupied, a ministry official was quoted as saying plantings could fall by 60% to 70%.

Update on Situation in Ukraine 

Summary: Russia test-launched a new intercontinental missile that it said could carry several nuclear warheads, a warning to the U.S. and Europe. Some in the White House worry it’s a sign that Putin’s isolation is making him reckless, the NYT writes (link). In Ukraine, Russia said it had fired artillery, missiles and bombs at more than 1,100 targets. It also made probing attacks along the eastern front but has not started a full assault. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen walked out of a G20 meeting as Russia’s finance minister spoke. President Biden today at 9:45 a.m. ET will deliver an update on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

• The Ukrainian Air Force has added about 20 more operational aircraft to its fleet because of an influx of spare parts, according to a senior US defense official, which will help strengthen the country’s aerial defense network.
• Russia test-launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile, known as “Satan 2”, intended to replace a Soviet-era ICBM. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said the test would “give thought to those who are trying to threaten Russia”. According to the country’s defense ministry, the missile was launched from the Arkhangelsk region in north-western Russia and landed on the Kamchatka peninsula, in the Far East. A Pentagon spokesman said Russia had informed America about the test beforehand.
• Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is under intense pressure at home and abroad because of his refusal to send heavy weapons, such as tanks and submarines, to Ukraine. This week he tried to deflect the criticism by saying that his government was supporting German arms manufacturers, even while admitting his army had nothing left to offer. 
   

• Market Impacts
   

• Russia came closer to default after a swaps watchdog ruled against ruble payments. The 14 counterparties that oversee the credit-default swaps market, including investment banks, asset managers and brokerage firms, ruled unanimously on Wednesday that Russia fell short of fulfilling its debt obligations. Moscow could still avert a default if it pays bondholders in dollars before the grace period ends on May 4.
   
• Russia’s centra bank may further cut rates at upcoming meetings, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said during a session with the Russian Duma. "We will consider the possibility of its further reduction at upcoming meetings," Nabiullina said, warning the country was going to see structural changes ahead caused by the sanctions levied by the West over its invasion of Ukraine. "Problems may arise even when there is a production with a high degree of localization, when there has already been a fairly high import substitution," Nabiullina said. The Russian central bank raised rates to 20% in late February to stabilize the ruble and thwart inflation. The rate was cut to 17% in April, but it is clear from Nabiullina’s remarks that further reductions are ahead.
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