Ukraine
“For now, we don’t believe there’s going to be much in the effect in terms of fertilizer production from either country, though it would be a little silly to not consider it,” says Josh Linville from StoneX.
Farmer and philanthropist Howard Buffett held a fireside chat during the 2024 Top Producer Summit to share his experiences visiting the front line of Ukraine over the past two years.
Experts are watching global dynamics to understand the input market’s longer-term outlook in the U.S. Among their top concerns are geopolitics, weather and low supply.
Ukraine is a key player in global agriculture, and how these conflicts play out will have international impacts.
Grain prices continue to rally as Russia ramped up attacks on Ukrainian ports on the River Danube. But agricultural economists and markets analysts point out the situation still hasn’t reached a worst-case scenario yet.
The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor showed several key changes from June including a bigger cut to corn and soybean yields, a drop in corn and soybean prices and more bullish cattle and hog prices.
It didn’t start with the swing of an ax in the Amazon or by an explosion in Kiev. Both contributed, but the shifts in global grain flows is a multifaceted prism through which the future is continuing to evolve.
The Kremlin said there was no link between the attack and suspending the deal, which lets Ukraine export grain through the Black Sea. Instead, it occurred over a failure to ease rules for food and fertilizer exports.
This comes amid word that Ukraine’s ag output is expected to decline by 36% this year, compared to 2021.
The Ukraine Black Sea grain deal has been extended for two more months, one day before Russia could have quit the pact over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports.
Kansas typically accounts for 25% of the nation’s winter wheat production, but ongoing drought is weighing on overall crop conditions. Farmers are now facing the possibility of increased abandonment this year.
Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea region are at risk again as Ukrainian officials say Russia is taking action to block inspections of ships under the Black Sea grain initiative.
Russia badly needs to replace expended and outdated Soviet arms while China needs Russian energy. That is compelling math. This is bad news not just for the heroic people of Ukraine, but Europe and the US.
“When Ukraine fails, in terms of their ability to produce agricultural products, the world becomes less safe,” says Howard Buffett, global philanthropist and Illinois farmer.
Russia is now saying it will only extend its Black Sea grain deal if sanctions are lifted on its own agricultural products. The deal, which was brokered last year, allowed for safe passage of Ukrainian ag products.
A year after Russia invaded Ukraine farmers continue to see reduced crop production and exports. Farming has been difficult in the middle of a war, but farmers such as Nick Gordiichuk have persevered.
A year ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine injected uncertainty about global grain supplies into the market. Today, initial concerns have been squashed by the reality of record exports from the Black Sea Region.
For Ukrainians, the introduction of Starlink has been essential. As Russian barrages destroy cell towers and blow up landlines, satellite internet connection is not just an option, but it’s now a lifeline.
As of January 2022 there were over 1,000 satellites in orbit that fall into the category of Earth observation.
The grain markets saw waves this week, and agricultural economists say it revealed just how much traders think the vital grain corridor in Russia and Ukraine is worth.
Data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food shows the country shipped 6.9 million metric tons of grain, vegetables and edible oils last month, nearly matching the 7.1 million tons exported in Sept. 2021.
“This is my plea, from a humble farmer in Ukraine to the people of the world: Please ask your governments to stop this reckless war, launched by that cruel and power-hungry authoritarian, Vladimir Putin.”
Biden administration wants more total planted acres with a focus on soybeans and wheat. That is the clear conclusion from what the administration is proposing as part of its latest wish list for Congress.
The 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour will be sweeping the Midwest soon. We spoke with a handful of master crop scouts to get a preview of what to expect on each leg of the tour.
Less than a week after the first shipment of grain left Ukraine, three more ships departed Friday. Grain analysts are still concerned about not only how much grain will be exported, but if the ships will safely return.
Ukraine’s first shipment of grain since Russia’s invasion is now one step closer to reaching its final destination of Lebanon. The UN. says the shipment of over 26,000 tons of corn was cleared to proceed Wednesday.
“There are still more questions than answers, but we did get a vessel out the door,” says Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company.
U.S. estimates show global wheat levels are stockpiled at 33% of annual consumption. Gro Intelligence says the world’s numerous economic crises prove government estimates are “not adding up.”