Latest News From Ukraine

Experts are watching global dynamics to understand the input market’s longer-term outlook in the U.S. Among their top concerns are geopolitics, weather and low supply.

Grain prices continue to rally as Russia ramped up attacks on Ukrainian ports on the River Danube. But agricultural economists and markets analysts point out the situation still hasn’t reached a worst-case scenario yet.

The July Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor showed several key changes from June including a bigger cut to corn and soybean yields, a drop in corn and soybean prices and more bullish cattle and hog prices.

The Kremlin said there was no link between the attack and suspending the deal, which lets Ukraine export grain through the Black Sea. Instead, it occurred over a failure to ease rules for food and fertilizer exports.

This comes amid word that Ukraine's ag output is expected to decline by 36% this year, compared to 2021.

The Ukraine Black Sea grain deal has been extended for two more months, one day before Russia could have quit the pact over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports.

Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea region are at risk again as Ukrainian officials say Russia is taking action to block inspections of ships under the Black Sea grain initiative.

Kansas typically accounts for 25% of the nation's winter wheat production, but ongoing drought is weighing on overall crop conditions. Farmers are now facing the possibility of increased abandonment this year.

Russia badly needs to replace expended and outdated Soviet arms while China needs Russian energy. That is compelling math. This is bad news not just for the heroic people of Ukraine, but Europe and the US.

“When Ukraine fails, in terms of their ability to produce agricultural products, the world becomes less safe,” says Howard Buffett, global philanthropist and Illinois farmer.

Russia is now saying it will only extend its Black Sea grain deal if sanctions are lifted on its own agricultural products. The deal, which was brokered last year, allowed for safe passage of Ukrainian ag products. 

A year after Russia invaded Ukraine farmers continue to see reduced crop production and exports. Farming has been difficult in the middle of a war, but farmers such as Nick Gordiichuk have persevered.

A year ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine injected uncertainty about global grain supplies into the market. Today, initial concerns have been squashed by the reality of record exports from the Black Sea Region.

It didn’t start with the swing of an ax in the Amazon or by an explosion in Kiev. Both contributed, but the shifts in global grain flows is a multifaceted prism through which the future is continuing to evolve.

For Ukrainians, the introduction of Starlink has been essential. As Russian barrages destroy cell towers and blow up landlines, satellite internet connection is not just an option, but it's now a lifeline.

As of January 2022 there were over 1,000 satellites in orbit that fall into the category of Earth observation.

The grain markets saw waves this week, and agricultural economists say it revealed just how much traders think the vital grain corridor in Russia and Ukraine is worth.

Data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food shows the country shipped 6.9 million metric tons of grain, vegetables and edible oils last month, nearly matching the 7.1 million tons exported in Sept. 2021. 

The 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour will be sweeping the Midwest soon. We spoke with a handful of master crop scouts to get a preview of what to expect on each leg of the tour.

Less than a week after the first shipment of grain left Ukraine, three more ships departed Friday. Grain analysts are still concerned about not only how much grain will be exported, but if the ships will safely return.

Ukraine's first shipment of grain  since Russia's invasion is now one step closer to reaching its final destination of Lebanon. The UN. says the shipment of over 26,000 tons of corn was cleared to proceed Wednesday.

“There are still more questions than answers, but we did get a vessel out the door,” says Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company.

For the first time since the war started, a Ukrainian ship carrying grain left port. The UN says the Razoni was carrying 26,527 MT of corn. The vessel was stuck in port since Feb. 18, before the start of the war.

Heavy Russian strikes hit the southern Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv overnight and early on Sunday, killing the owner of one of the country's largest grain producing and exporting companies, the local governor said.

U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths said on Thursday that grain shipments from Ukraine could resume as soon as today but that details of the exact coordinates of shipping routes were still being finalized.

Global grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) reported a 74% rise in second-quarter profit on Tuesday, benefiting from high demand for grains and tighter supplies following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Five months after the invasion, Senators will receive a classified briefing Wednesday. Russia launched a missile attack on the key grain-exporting port of Odesa Saturday, a day after signing a deal to resume exports.

A day after Ukraine and Russia signed a deal to resume grain exports from Ukraine, Russian missiles hit the Odesa port. Ukrainian foreign-ministry accused Vladimir Putin of “spitting in the face” of U.N and Turkey.

With little to no diesel readily available to fuel harvest, wheat and other grains languish in the country's fields. One analyst says he expects the global wheat market will be shorted 10 million metric tons.

Russian forces targeted at least two large grain terminals Wednesday in the port of Mykolaiv. Western governments claim Russia is carrying out a campaign to degrade Ukraine’s ability to export food.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict threatens to upend world trade.

Diesel prices are causing sticker shock, as fears of a possible diesel shortage are growing. It’s not just retail diesel prices that are rapidly rising. Some farmers report booking off-road diesel for above $5.

U.S. estimates show global wheat levels are stockpiled at 33% of annual consumption. Gro Intelligence says the world’s numerous economic crises prove government estimates are “not adding up.”

Tensions between Russia and the West are escalating as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow would strike new targets if the U.S. supplied long-range missiles to Ukraine, according to Russian state media.

Participants who seek this one-time, voluntary termination do not have to repay rental payments. But they must make requests for voluntary termination in writing through their local USDA office.

After making it through the spring planting season, sometimes with the help of bulletproof vests and helmets, Ukraine's farmers are facing another challenge – finding enough diesel for the harvest to come.

When farmers or ranchers in the U.S. face tragedy others in the industry are quick to help. That same mentality, of farmers helping farmers, has reached Ukraine as support rolls in from across the globe.

"Right now, Ukraine’s grain silos are full,” says David Beasley, executive director of the World Food Programme. “At the same time, 44 million people around the world are marching towards starvation."

Biden says Ukraine has 20 million tons of stored grain awaiting export to various countries. He says lack of port movement coupled with halted planting in Ukraine will ignite a global food crisis unless action is taken.

Diesel prices hit historic highs this week. Due to increased demand and a drop in production, a diesel shortage may be looming as the largest diesel distribution hub in the U.S. is sitting on supplies at a 30-year low.

Rail backlogs in the United States are delaying shipment of grains as well as processed flour and corn syrup, contributing to the national problem of inflation, food and grain companies said at a hearing this week.

What's included in the White House's recent Ukraine aid proposal? AgriTalk Host Chip Flory reads between the lines with the Biden administration's Candace Vahlsing, as industry leaders examine the potential consequences.

Concerns over the world’s supply of grains and oilseeds are prompting the Biden administration to step in and encourage more production. Grain analysts say supplies of grains are tight due to the situation in Ukraine.

Biden administration wants more total planted acres with a focus on soybeans and wheat. That is the clear conclusion from what the administration is proposing as part of its latest wish list for Congress. 

Ukrainian farmers in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia are determined to get their fields planted this spring.

CBOT soybean oil prices hit a record high after Indonesia announced it will effectively ban palm oil exports as of April 28. With no timeline in place, some question the motive and duration of the announced ban.

Ukraine has planted 2.5 million hectares of spring-planted crops so far this year, 20% of expected area, according to the Ukrainian ag ministry. The country has warned of a potential decline of 20% in 2022 plantings.

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is accusing Russia of using hunger as a weapon. He claims Russian forces are deliberately targeting the country's essential food supplies.

Black swans emerge, to cast shadows of doubt on agriculture’s future

Nearly 4 million acres of CRP expire this year. Secy. Vilsack wrote to National Grain and Feed Association's Mike Seyfert to share converting CRP is “unfeasible.” However, Vilsack did offer one caveat in his letter.