Another Black Swan Could Swoop into the Fertilizer Market
Last week, roughly 3,000 Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP Rail) workers voted 96.7% in favor of going on strike starting March 16 if a collective bargaining agreement is not penned, according to CP Teamsters.
CP Rail halts would mean trouble for agricultural stakeholders like Nutrien, who has spoken out against the planned strike.
“Nutrien relies on rail and a CP Teamsters strike could impact our ability to move potash, nitrogen, and crop inputs to our retail locations across Canada ahead of the upcoming spring application season, potentially reducing crop yields later in the year,” the company says. “The global food supply is already stretched and cannot afford further negative impacts at this time.”
The company has since urged the Canadian government to intervene before another “transportation crisis” arises.
The Fertilizer Institute, along with various agricultural associations, mirrored Nutrien's comments in a letter to the White House, urging the administration speak with the Canadian government to revert a strike and rescind the cross-border vaccine mandate.
"Approximately 10% to 15% of CP’s business is fertilizer. A CP railway strike would severely curtail fertilizer supply and shipments into the United States and would happen at the worst possible time as farmers are planting their 2022 crop," the working group noted. "This will make inflation worse and drive up the cost and availability of food."
Jim Wiesemeyer, ProFarmer policy analyst says trade analysts shared “loud and clear” over the weekend they don’t think fertilizer is going to have much of an impact on acreage. However, he believes there is more to be considered.
“I talked to a number of other people, including those in the coop industry, that said some of their orders have been cancelled for herbicides and other chemicals,” says Wiesemeyer. “I think that’s another shoe to fall later this year.”
The Straw that Broke Fertilizer’s Back
CP Rail’s strike would put increased strain on fertilizer at a time when kinks from Hurricane Ida, supply chain issues during COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine continue to play out.
Most recently, Russia's ministry on trade and industry is recommending their fertilizer producers temporarily halt exports.
Russia produces 13% of the world’s total fertilizer each year, totalling 50 million tons. The country is a major exporter of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-containing fertilizers, all of which are major crop and soil nutrients.
Read more:
> Hurricane Ida Idles Largest Glyphosate Production Plant in the U.S.
> China Asked for Russia to Delay Attack on Ukraine Until After Winter Olympics
> Russian Ministry Recommends Fertilizer Producers Halt Exports
