3 Reasons Agriculture’s Productivity Gains May Be Running Out Of Steam

Agriculture is in a bit of a funk. Although that may not be the official description, a recent study by USDA’s Economic Research Service has confirmed average annual agricultural output growth has slowed to its lowest rate in six decades. 

Analysts did not point the finger to any primary culprit as the reason for the drop-off, but they specifically mentioned the rate of development of new productivity-enhancing technologies may be slowing down. 

Such speculation may be closer to the truth than most of us who have lived in the agricultural technology space for years are willing to admit. Especially in precision ag’s early glory days, there was the thought that the technological advances happening would achieve almost godlike miracles when deployed on a farm. 

Although we may have figured out ways to turn chickpeas into cheeseburgers, most advances lately haven’t exactly achieved the Biblical equivalent of turning water into wine. Some would say technology has failed us, but upon deeper reflection, maybe we failed, too. 

We need to call out three key areas. First, we must humble ourselves enough to admit we are not as technically advanced as we think we are, and we are certainly not as advanced as we could be. Second, we’ve seen it all too many times when good, even great technologies suddenly disappear or never make it to reality. A third factor crippling tomorrow’s promises is that we’ve held on to too much “legacy” technology for too long.

Do you really use it?

Although no one will argue about grid soil sampling, VRT fertilizer application and yield monitoring having fundamentally and operationally changed agriculture, certain technologies have left a lot of chips on the table. The yield monitor is the perfect example.

In many cases, this technology may have been used more for entertainment value than adding value to the bottom line. I used to jokingly call the yield monitor the farmer’s in-cab version of the “I Love Lucy” show—only there to provide mindless entertainment and big numbers to be used for bragging rights at the coffee shop.

There is a stark difference between adoption and utilization. How many fields have been applied a flat rate of fertilizer by a machine capable of variable rate? How many millions or tens of millions of acres of digital yield data have been deleted or lost over the years just because “the card was full”? 

Don’t blink! 

The second reason for slower progress is certain wonderful technologies evaporate right before our very eyes. Consider the case of Spensa “smart insect” mapping where real-time technology transformed the old-fashioned “bug trap” into what looked like a powerful 21st century tool. It had potential to be a regional or possibly even national “Doppler radar”-like early warning system for pests. However, in 2018, DTN purchased Spensa and soon mothballed the technology. One wonders how many bushels could have been saved if such technology actually matured to its true potential.

Then, there are the so-close-but-so-far-away technologies. The seemingly latest example of “what might have been” involves the much hyped CNH totally autonomous commercial VRT spreader. This was supposed to be the first ready-for-prime-time product born as the result of CNH’s acquisition of Raven’s autonomous assets that had included companies like DOT and Smart Ag. According to CNH, the autonomous spreader for now has been relegated to the sidelines to shift development resources to more commercially viable products such as higher horsepower autonomous tractors. Will we still see fleets of autonomous spreaders in the fields anytime soon? Or will this project end up permanently parked in agriculture’s “Warehouse 13”—the place where so any great inventions go only to be forgotten.

Time to give up the woobie 

The movie “Mr. Mom” has a great scene where Michael Keaton—aka “Mr. Mom”—has a heart-to-heart with his young son about it being time to finally give up his tattered and worn out security blanket—aka “the woobie.” 

Right now, the land of precision agriculture has a lot of “woobies.” This is the land of YM2000, PF 3000 and GreenStar “brown box” yield monitors. This is where shop office desk drawers filled with ziplock bags full of SRAM, PC and CompactFlash memory cards fragilely hold onto the data of harvests’ past. 

Antiquated analog-era technology as a whole is impeding the adoption of newer technologies that offer greater benefits and simplified ease of use. It just might be a sign that it’s time to start putting some of these technologies out to pasture when you find out that Al Myers’ original Ag Leader yield monitor is now officially part of the Smithsonian museum. 

Constantly updating and expanding technology on the farm and ag retail is the unfortunate reality of being on the agricultural treadmill. Once you step off or quit, you’re going to be behind the curve. Ag technology is not your John Deere 4020 tractor from the ’60s. It is cousin to your smartphone being replaced every two to three years.

And in case you are wondering what happens when you hold on to technology way beyond its expiration date, just ask Southwest Airlines. Its years of cumulating “technological debt”— or old tech—caused the airline’s infamous “holiday meltdown.” Your farm and our industry are susceptible to the same thing.

Individually, and as an industry, we can be a much better version when it comes to this subject. We need to better use the technology we have and foster a better environment to create, grow and sustain game-changing technologies. Also, yes, it is time to seriously purge the “woobies” out of the system.

This includes at the policy level. Billions of dollars were doled out for USDA’s Climate Smart initiative, and very little funding seemed to address real everyday technological challenges at the farm level. In order to have a smarter climate, you’re going to have to have smarter farms.