Are Iowa, Illinois and Indiana Farmers Sitting on a Record Corn Crop This Year?
U.S. Farm Report 07/24/21 - Roundtable 1
Even with the heat in the forecast, rains have helped remove the panic from the corn and soybean markets the past month. And as July enters its final weeks, the corn “weather market” may be behind the U.S.
“Actually, even a couple months ago, I thought we probably were showing signs of exhaustion,” says Dan Hueber of The Hueber Report. “We just really didn't react positive to news that you would expect it. Since that time, the highs have been just a little bit lower. Not that we really collapsed to the downside, but by the time you reach Fourth of July, it is difficult to bring a lot of new people in with interest in the corn market unless there is a widespread high pressure system sitting in the middle of Iowa and Illinois. And that's not the case this year.”
As Hueber describes corn as taking a backseat in the market action, Matt Bennett of AgMarket.Net says production problems are definitely evident this year, but overall, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana may be sitting on a massive corn crop.
“I can tell you in Central Illinois, we had a really good planting window with great weather, with really good emergence and a uniform crop. Things look really good,” he says. “I'm not going to say it's that way for everyone, but when you get down looking at your size and length of the ears, the potential is there. I think there's going to be several areas in the “I States” and into parts of Ohio that are going to be looking at record-type crop.”
Bennett says he knows the promising production picture isn’t the case for every corn producing state this year, with drought and heat eating into the hopes of a bountiful corn crop this year in states like North Dakota.
“For instance, in North Dakota talking about 1988 type weather, and so in the grand scheme of things, I think that you're probably still looking at a record crop, I just don't think that it's maybe going to be quite what the USDA is predicting just yet,” adds Bennett.
Hueber says at this point, he thinks the overall market and trade action is under the belief it won’t be a record crop this year.
“I think it would be a little bit shocking that east of the Mississippi we can pick up enough pace to compensate for some of the problems in the West. So, trendline yield, I think it’s probably a hope at this point, not necessarily realistic,” says Hueber.
