Rural Bankers: Farmland Prices Rocket to Record Highs
For 12 straight months, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) has remained above growth neutral, to the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI).
For November 2021, the RMI rose to 67.7 from October’s 66.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50 representing growth neutral and is generated by a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
“Solid grain prices, the Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rates, and growing exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” says Ernie Goss, who chairs Creighton’s Heider College of Business and leads the RMI. “USDA data show that 2021 year-to-date agriculture exports are more than 23% above that for the same period in 2020. This has been an important factor supporting the Rural Mainstreet economy.”
For 2021, the RMI has averaged 65.7.
The region’s farmland price index improved to a very strong, and record high of 85.5 from October’s 81.5. October’s reading represented the 15th straight month that the index has moved above growth neutral. For 2021, the farmland price index has averaged 74.6.
Here are the state-by-state farmland price indexes:
- Colorado: 83.6, up from 82
- Illinois: 85.5, up from 82.8 in October
- Iowa: 84.9, up from 81.9 in October
- Kansas: 83.6, up from 80.1 in October
- Minnesota: 87.2, up from 83.7 in October
- Missouri: 81.5, up from 77 in October
- Nebraska: 85.4, down from 87.3 in October
- North Dakota: 82.7, up from 80.1 in October
- South Dakota: 84.2, up from 82.2 in October
- Wyoming: 83.2, up from 80.6 in October
The November farm equipment-sales index slipped to a strong 62.1 from 64.8 in October. Readings for farmland prices and equipment sales over the last several months represent the strongest consistent growth since 2012.
The new hiring index dropped to a still robust 67.7 from 71.4 in October. Labor shortages continue to be a significant issue for Rural Mainstreet businesses.
Despite recent strong job gains, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that, compared to its pre-COVID-19 level, Rural Mainstreet has lost 2.5% of its nonfarm employment (non-seasonally adjusted).
The confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out sank for the fifth straight month to 48.4, its lowest level since August of last year, and down from October’s 51.8.
The RMI, which started in 2005, represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agricultural and energy-dependent portions of the nation. It focuses on 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.
