Here’s How Pro Farmer's 2023 Yield Estimates Stack Up to USDA Expectations

It’s Friday in Pro Farmer Crop Tour week, which means the highly anticipated production estimates for the 2023 U.S. corn and soybean crops are now available.

These estimates are based on Crop Tour data and observations collected this past week by more than 100 crop scouts who sampled 3,000+ fields spanning Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. 

Corn yield estimates

“We built record corn yields ahead of these extreme heat-indexed days. That’s the key point as we looked across the Corn Belt as a whole this week—we got ahead on yield early-on in order to hit average after the losses to heat,” Brian Grete of Pro Farmer says.

Indiana: Corn plants in Indiana look good, but kernel counts around will take a bite out of yield. With incidences of tar spot popping up all over the state, the yield could quickly change. Without tar spot, Indiana could hit yield average.

Illinois: Wildfire smoke and overnight temperatures won’t stop Illinois corn from hitting average yield. Tar spot, however, could blow up in pockets in coming weeks, which would pack a punch in the kernels’ starch and test weights.

Iowa: Five days with 103° heat index equated to five weeks of stress on corn crops in Iowa. The crops clearly ran out of energy and will see a just-below-average yield.

Minnesota: Burn is eating up the state’s corn crop up to one leaf below the ear. Kernel depth will push the crop below average yields.

Nebraska: The Nebraska corn fields had plenty of ears, but they are already hanging. Irrigated acres will hit average, but non-irrigated will take a hit.

Ohio: A surge of moisture saved the crop this week. Despite being behind on growing degree days, the crop is more consistent than 2022 and looks to yield above average.

South Dakota: Rain in many regions of South Dakota resulted in a 180° from 2022’s crop. There’s no tip back in the Southeast corn for the state, yet. Final weeks of the season could shrink grain depth, but with little effect.

Soybean yield estimates

“We saw extremely stressful conditions this week. Thanks to the management put on the crop, hybrid and varieties available, the ability of both the corn and soybean crops to build a yield in these conditions has been unbelievable,” Chip Flory, AgriTalk host says. “The question now is whether or not they can hold on to it.”

Indiana: Moisture deficiencies are playing out heavily in Indiana’s soybeans. However, the plant is proving resilient with high pod and seed counts. The state will yield higher than last year. 

Illinois: Months-long drought followed by a derecho caused whiplash in Illinois soybeans. But the storm caused more good than bad, resulting in short nodes and short beans, with high pod counts. The state will see slightly above-average harvest numbers.

Iowa: Dry conditions produced yellow-green marbled fields. Despite dry conditions, pod counts in Iowa will trump Illinois. But seed size and count will cause a yield penalty.

Minnesota: Heat stress and drought are throwing punches at soybean yield in Minnesota. The state is patchy, with two-bean pods spotted in the state’s Southwestern corridor while other areas will have an average-yielding crop.

Nebraska: The bean crop appeared to be dying out instead of drying out. With no chance of rain in the forecast, the crops won’t have a chance to fill.

Ohio: Rains this week in Ohio greened-up crops at a pivotal growth stage. The state’s soybean crop won’t be better than 2021, but it will be better than 2022.

South Dakota: Pod counts are above normal for what scouts would usually see in the state, thanks to late-season moisture. Yield will likely come out average, or slightly above.