2020 Elections: What’s At Stake?
Q: What are your predictions and key insights for the Trump and Biden race?
“In the average of polls, Biden is ahead,” says Jim Wiesemeyer, Pro Farmer policy analyst. “The role of rural states is critical. Trump cannot lose any rural state he won in 2016. If he does, he will lose. There are six key states to watch for in the presidential election: Florida, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Add Iowa into the mix too because it’s a close race. If the Democrats win the White House, House and Senate, there will be substantial changes. Expect to see substantial changes with tax matters, health reform, immigration issues and transportation.”
Q: Which presidential candidate offers more favorable tax policy proposals for farmers?
“For farmers, Trump would be favorable over Biden in terms of tax policy,” says Paul Neiffer, principal and CPA with CLA. “On the Biden front, nothing he’s proposed makes me excited for farmers — only nervous. He wants to likely reduce lifetime estate tax exemption, as well as tax unrealized gains at death. Biden also wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. He does want to dramatically reduce the preferential rate for long-term capital gains, which does affect a lot of livestock and dairy producers.”
Q: If Rep. Collin Peterson, chair of the House Ag Committee, is not re-elected, what changes will it bring?
“We’ll lose a lot of intellectual heft on foreign policy on the committee,” Wiesemeyer says. “Not many of the staff will remain, and Peterson has good staff members. Also worth noting: Rep. Mike Conaway, Texas, a well-respected Republican with a great staff, is not running for re-election. If the Democrats retain control, Bennie Thompson, Mississippi, is next in line for chair, but he’ll likely take another post. Then it’s David Scott, Georgia; Jim Costa, California and Marcia Fudge, Ohio.”
Q: Sen. Debbie Stabenow will be the chair of the Senate Ag Committee if the Democrats take the Senate. Does that change the conversation?
“Very much so, as Stabenow has shown with prior farm bills, she usually gets what she wants,” Wiesemeyer says. “She will focus on food stamp funding, specialty crops and urban agriculture. The Democrats are competitive in the Senate, and they’re gaming for current Republican-held seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. Whoever wins Iowa in the presidential race will win the Senate race. That’s how important the Trump and Biden race is in Iowa.“
To listen to the full conversation with Jim Wiesemeyer, including what might be ahead for USDA leadership and agriculture if Trump is re-elected or Biden wins, visit AgWeb.com/2020-key-races
