Pro Farmer Crop Estimates Far Below USDA Expectations
Pro Farmer shared its much-anticipated production estimates today for the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean crops after analyzing information from the 30th annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour and other sources. The estimates are informed by Crop Tour data and observations collected this past week by more than 100 crop scouts who sampled nearly 3,400 fields across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.
Corn Yield Estimates
“The question heading into Crop Tour was whether there would be enough bushels in the eastern Corn Belt to offset the bushels lost in the drier western areas,” says Brian Grete, Pro Farmer editor. “After Crop Tour, the answer is: Clearly, there won’t be enough in the east to offset the west, not nearly enough.”
Illinois: Corn in Illinois was relatively consistent, but it lacked the “wow” factor required to produce a superior yield. The crop in southern Illinois, which isn’t on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour route, isn’t poor, but it won’t pull up the state average.
Indiana: The Indiana corn crop has plenty of ears, but grain length is an issue. Many of the ears pulled during Crop Tour had notable kernel abortion at the tip.
Iowa: Of all the states sampled on Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Iowa had the most variability. The state has plenty of exceptional corn, and some areas will produce the best yields ever. But there’s also a fair amount of average and sub-par fields in the state.
Minnesota: Central and southeastern areas of Minnesota will carry the load this year. Other areas of the state have some issues.
Nebraska: Dryland corn in the Nebraska is baked, and even the irrigated corn was hurt by the heat and dryness. Plus, the state had damage from hail and wind. There has been too much stress on the crop.
Ohio: Ohio has a very good corn crop, but it won’t rival 2021’s record yield. There’s far more variability in the state this year, especially on grain length, which will hold back the crop.
South Dakota: Pro Farmer Crop Tour samples the southeast portion of South Dakota, which is normally the sweet spot. That isn’t the case this year. Areas north of where the Tour samples will be better, but the state as a whole has issues.
Soybean Yield Estimates
“From what I’ve seen, the yield factor is there for soybeans to have a strong finish if weather is favorable leading up to harvest, I just don’t think it’s quite as strong as what USDA estimated because of the dryness in Nebraska, western Iowa and South Dakota,” said Grete.
Illinois: There is loads of potential with the Illinois soybean crop, and there is plenty of soil moisture to fill pods. Another rain would push much of the state’s soybean crop to the finish line.
Indiana: It rained ahead of and right after Crop Tour. Indiana has plentiful soybean moisture to finish strong. The Tour found some fields that were still flowering, but there should be enough moisture to set and fill pods.
Iowa: Iowa’s soybean crop is disease and weed-free. Recent rains came in time to help much of the western Iowa crop, though this area will need September rainfall to finish strong. Some eastern areas of the state have enough moisture to finish.
Minnesota: Sudden Death Syndrome has reared its ugly head in some areas of Minnesota. The next one to two weeks will determine if disease pressure hurts yield potential. Moisture supplies are strong enough to finish the crop.
Nebraska: Dryland soybeans are hanging on and a late-season rain could allow plants to maintain their pods. Nebraska farmers haven’t given up on irrigated soybeans and are actively pumping water.
Ohio: Ohio has a slightly less mature crop than Indiana, but there’s plenty of moisture to get it to the finish line. Maturity of the crop is far enough along to finish given the typical extended season in the far eastern Belt.
South Dakota: There’s not much to say other than the South Dakota crop has been severely damaged by heat and dryness. The worst areas have already given up and others aren’t far from that level. Even a late-season rain wouldn’t do much to benefit some of the crop at this point.
Watch the broadcast of the Pro Farmer estimates:
The national estimates reflect Pro Farmer’s view on production and yields. They take into account data gathered during Crop Tour and other factors, such as crop maturity, historical differences in Crop Tour data versus USDA’s final yields and areas outside those sampled on Crop Tour. As a result, the state yield numbers differ from Crop Tour figures released the past week.
Based on August FSA-certified acreage data, Pro Farmer increased soybean acreage by 500,000 acres but made no adjustment to corn acreage.
