‘Dual Rainstorm Track’ Forecast for Now through Early April

As John Homenuk, a meteorologist for Empire Weather, considers the weather outlook for the next few weeks, he predicts what he calls a “dual rainstorm track.” It’s in his forecast for now through early April and perhaps even into the middle of the month. 

Track One
This track is likely to provide moisture relief to parts of states that have been dry in recent months. It consists of a series of rainstorms that will come out of the Rockies from an area called the Intermountain Region West. 

“And so that's where we have some of those key areas of the Plains projecting for rains through early April,” Homenuk explains.

The areas of greatest concern extend from Nebraska through Kansas and Oklahoma into Texas, particularly the two panhandle areas. Those states are highlighted by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The window is open for meaningful moisture to occur in those areas, but there are no guarantees – few things change as quickly as the weather.

“Right now, we're not sounding the alarm bells. But if we don't verify these rains for some reason over the next couple of weeks and we end up in mid-April, and it's still dry, that's when things are going to become very concerning,” he says. “We have a forecast for the spring (in that region) that includes increasingly dry and warm conditions pretty much from late April into May,” he explains.

Track Two
The second part of Homenuk’s dual rainstorm track forecast could mean moisture relief in some areas and wet planting conditions in others.

“(We anticipate) rainstorms coming down from the northern gulf stream in Canada, and those will slide right down through the Dakotas and into the Ohio Valley, providing some moisture for the Northern Plains,” he says.

The good news? Those parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, northwest Illinois and northern Iowa that have been parched are likely to receive some rain events, Homenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Wednesday.

However, Homenuk’s forecast also means parts of southern Illinois and southern Indiana, which have had more than enough rain over the winter, could see continued moisture.

“I think we have to monitor the possibility that it could be a little wetter than normal in parts of the eastern agricultural belt into the Ohio Valley until early to mid-April,” he says.
That means farmers in those areas are likely to face wet soil conditions, which could contribute to some planting delays.

Listen to Homenuk’s discussion with Flory on AgriTalk here: