Election 2024 Is Shaping Up To Be A Doozy
While voters across the country are headed to the polls today to cast ballots on a variety of state and local issues, many analysts are looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election.
All current indications point to a Biden-Trump rematch, according to David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst of the Cook Political Report. He calls the 2024 race the strangest presidential election he’s ever approached in his career.
“I'm not sure that either of these men truly wants to serve another four years as president,” he told Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, on Monday.
Wasserman says both candidates have ulterior motives for running.
“I think, in Trump's case, it's the best shield he has against every prosecution coming his way. And, in Biden's case, I think he sees it as his moral obligation to prevent Trump from being president again,” Wasserman says.
Will Biden Run Or Not?
Wasserman’s perspective is the Democrats are more divided at this juncture than the Republican party, and he contends the Democrats are headed for a “reckoning this fall” on whether Biden should run again.
“Just in the last few days, I think you've seen this break out into the open with David Axelrod, a former Obama advisor, questioning whether it's wise for Biden to pursue another term when Trump is leading in these polls,” Wasserman says.
The issues Wasserman cites for Biden include his age and the perception Americans have that he’s not handled the economy well.
“Particularly problematic for the president is his ratings among the type of peripherally engaged voters who did not show up in the midterms, but who are likely to show up next year – these independent, young, anti-establishment voters who don't necessarily have a four-year college degree. They're open to Trump's very simplistic message, which is, ‘When I was president, you didn't have crazy inflation, and you didn't have wars in the Middle East or Ukraine.’”
The age factor – Biden is 80, and Trump is 77 – will likely shape up to be an issue voters will grapple with if there is a presidential rematch between the two in 2024.
To date, Trump has faced less scrutiny over his age, but that’s not been the case for Biden.
Seventy-three percent of Americans say Biden is “too old to run for president” and serve effectively for another term, according to a Wall Street Journal poll conducted in late August.
Wasserman says Biden is surrounded by people who are unwilling to tell him something he doesn't want to hear.
“Around the Thanksgiving table at the Biden household, I think there's going to be nothing but encouragement for him to run again, because ‘screw all these people who say that you shouldn't do it,’” Wasserman told Flory.
Democrats Waiting In The Wings
However, if Biden were to decide he shouldn’t run again, Wasserman says the floodgates would open and some well-funded Democrats would step up to run.
Among the potential front runners to replace Biden would be Gavin Newsom, governor of California, and JB Pritzker, governor of Illinois, both of whom Wasserman says could quickly put together the infrastructure needed for a presidential campaign.
Wasserman says Vice President Kamala Harris wouldn’t necessarily have the president’s support to make a run for the top office. He references Barak Obama’s lack of endorsement of Biden in the 2020 Democratic primaries as a precedent for such a decision.
“Biden does not have to endorse Harris, and I think she lacks the talent, frankly, to beat Trump next year,” Wasserman notes.
His perspective is if Biden doesn’t run, the Democrats will need a candidate that can thread the needle between broad enough support in the Democratic party and electability in some of the Midwestern battleground states, often considered swing states or so-called purple states.
Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, Josh Shapiro governor of Pennsylvania, and Roy Cooper, governor of North Carolina, could also potentially fit the bill for the Democrats in 2024.
The Clock Is Ticking
How long President Biden has to make a final decision on whether to run or bow out is the big question facing the Democrats now, says Jim Wiesemeyer, Washington policy analyst for Pro Farmer.
“Some people say that he doesn't want to be a lame duck all that long. So, doesn't that signal the decision (could be made later) than most people think?” Wiesemeyer asked.
Wasserman responded that Lyndon B. Johnson didn’t get out of the 1968 presidential race until March 31 of that year.
“But look, in modern presidential politics, I don't think you really can wait that long,” Wasserman says. “If I'm in Biden's head right now, and let's say I did want to spend the final year of my presidency on diplomacy and trying to address foreign crises rather than on the campaign trail – where, let's be honest, my presentation in front of the camera isn't what it used to be – then I would wait as long as possible to avoid being a lame duck.
"But at the same time, there would have to be a period in 2024, where these Democratic alternatives could be tested on the campaign trail, because you don't succeed without going through that retail campaign test,” he adds.
For more on Wasserman’s outlook for the 2024 presidential election and what could transpire for the House and Senate races, listen to his AgriTalk conversation with Host Chip Flory here:
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