Could It Be Two Years Before Farmers See a New Farm Bill? The Ugly Truth About the Fight Over Funding

Time is running out to get a new farm bill written and passed by the end of the year. With only 11 working days left to get it written and passed before current legislation runs out, Congress is also in disagreement with how long it will take to get a new farm bill finished, which is why one ag economist fears it could take two years.

Even as staffers on the Senate and House ag committees worked tirelessly, the farm bill took a backseat to larger funding issues, including the current battle to keep the federal government open.

The biggest hurdle for agriculture is the effort to create a stronger safety net, especially since Joe Outlaw, Texas A&M extension economist co-director of the Agricultural and Food Policy Center, thinks the days of passing ad hoc payments, such as WHIP, are over. As conservatives try to clamp down on spending, he thinks it will become more difficult to pass one-off disaster aid legislation. 

"The conservatives in Washington, at least for the time being, they are not even wanting to fund the government because they want to cut payments. So in that environment, I don't see a lot of ad hoc disaster going out," says Outlaw. "Now, if it's a disaster hits in the right place, then I can see something getting passed. But this whole idea of taking care of farmers without going through the appropriations process, in my mind, is about to come to an end."

Outlaw, who’s worked on eight farm bills, says if it isn’t passed by February, it could be two years before agriculture sees a new farm bill because of the election. If FAPRI’s baseline projections are correct, a financial crisis could ensue before then, as commodity prices are projected to fall below the cost of production during that time.

The Fight for Funding

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – currently has baseline spending over a 10-year period at $1.51 trillion.  $1.2 trillion of the funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). 

Ag groups are fighting for an increase in the reference price under Title 1 of the farm bill, but that increase will require a lot more money than what’s available.  

“We’re talking about needing $20 billion to $25 billion for a 10% increase in those reference prices across all the crops,” Outlaw says. “If you want to 20%, which is what the producers really want, that’s an impossible $50 to $55 billion.”

With a long, drawn-out fight to finish the farm bill likely, Outlaw says farmers need to start making their voices heard.

“Within two years, prices are going to be below your cost of production, unless something happens on the input side,” Outlaw says. “That means we're not going to be making any money. We shouldn't have to wait until there are problems, but unfortunately, the way things work in Washington these days, we tend to have to have a crisis to get things done.”

Grassley Gives His Thoughts on Farm Bill Timeline 

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) is a tad more optimistic but still thinks the finish line isn’t close for passing a new Farm Bill.  He was interviewed on Monday’s AgriTalk. When asked about the funding battle, Grassley told AgriTalk's host Chip Flory, “A farm bill should have a really robust safety net for farmers, and we’ve seen the cost of seed, fertilizer and chemicals shoot up in the last two or three years. The new farm bill ought to reflect that if you're going to have a farm bill. And if we can't get that done, I think we're going to have a one-year extension on the farm bill."

As democrats on the Senate Ag Committee say they are still searching for more funding, there’s now speculation the Senate Finance panel may provide 5 billion dollars in additional farm bill funding, beyond the baseline. 

However, Grassley says he’s skeptical that will happen, saying if the Finance Committee finds that money, they’ll keep it for other programs within that committee. 

“I heard that there is that effort by the Democrats on the committee to go to the Finance Committee to get it, but usually, if the Finance Committee raises money someplace, they spend it within the programs of the finance committee, I think it's a real stretch to think that we're going to do that,” Grassley told Flory.

Financial Hurdles for the Farm Bill 

Instead, Senate Ag Committee Republicans are pushing to transfer around $18 billion in climate funding for agriculture conservation programs, provided in a 2022 law, to the farm bill baseline for conservation programs.

“Well, it should be. I have a new amendment and it would do that,” Grassley also said on AgriTalk. “It would save about $8 billion that could be used elsewhere in the farm program and for the benefit of farmers because we don't think you ought to be able to spend money out of the CCC program unless it's specifically authorized by the Congress of the United States. It should not be a slush fund for a secretary of agriculture uses as he sees fit. This isn’t something we just see with a democrat Secretary of Agriculture, because we saw it with a republican Secretary of Agriculture, too. The power of the purse rests with the Congress of the United States, not with the Secretary of Agriculture.”

According to Farm Journal’s Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer, the bottom line on funding issues that are delaying any progress is actually two-fold: not meeting Senate Ag ranking member John Boozman’s (R-Ark.) criteria on Title I funding and needing to wait on appropriations. Wiesemeyer says the House is more complicated.

“The appropriations process delays things in the House, as in the Senate. But beyond that, the path forward is murk,” ‘says Wiesemeyer.

Farm Bill By End of Year? That's What Stabenow Thinks

Even with the funding fight, Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), thinks it can get passed by the end of the year.
"I'm aiming towards December," Stabenow said at an event Monday night, Reuters reported. "It really is a question of resources and being able to put together the bipartisan votes."

Neither the House nor Senate has yet introduced their version of the farm bill, which is passed every five years and funds farm commodity, nutrition, and conservation programs.