For primary agriculture inputs such as fertilizer, crop protection products and seed, the evolving situation driven by the Trump administration around international trade has brought heightened awareness.
These three product categories are vulnerable in any discussion of tariffs, emerging trade deals or trade disruptions due to their global supply chains.
Seed
As highlighted by the American Seed Trade Association (ASTA), U.S. farmers are largely sourced by domestic production of corn, soybean and wheat seed. However, the complete seed supply process relies on an international breeding program.
“The ability to move seed internationally is a fundamental component of the years-long research and development (R&D) pipelines that allow U.S. farmers to have access to the best seeds and agricultural innovations in the world,” ASTA president and CEO Andy LaVigne said in a statement. “Plant breeders rely on trade to expedite crop improvement, test-drive new crop varieties in specific environments, and conduct critical functions to increase volumes of seed in a clean and efficient way – all before those seeds can be sold to farmers. Many aspects of this seed research, development and production cannot be relocated.”
As for the 2025 planting season, inventories are in place with ag retailers and customers with small exceptions. The focus for the seed industry relative to the tariff discussion is on longer range effects and uncertainty.
Fertilizer
When it comes to the fertilizer industry, the tariff discussion has largely focused on any effect to products from North America.
This includes potash, of which 85% of the U.S. potash demand is sourced from Canada and more than 90% is imported overall.
Per The Fertilizer Institute: “It’s our understanding that Mexico and Canada are unaffected (at least for now) and that the USMCA exemption continues. USMCA compliant potash has no tariff, non-USMCA compliant potash tariffed at a rate of 10%.”
For nitrogen, the U.S. is a leading producer of ammonia - which is used in the production of any nitrogen fertilizers and requires the use of natural gas. The U.S. has been a net exporter of natural gas since 2017. Of the natural gas that is imported for U.S. use, over 90% is sourced from Canada.
Regarding phosphorus, as Illinois Farm Doc Daily reported, up to 16% of U.S. yearly consumption is imported with nearly all of the imported phosphorous and phosphate rock sourced from Peru and Morocco since 2005.
Crop Protection
According to the Council of Producers and Distributors of Agrotechnology, it’s estimated more than 50% of all the crop protection products used in the U.S. have an active ingredient (or the intermediates used) originating from overseas suppliers.
“The Council of Producers & Distributors of Agrotechnology (CPDA) closely monitors global trade developments, as they play a key role in shaping the agricultural supply chain and ensuring that U.S. farmers have access to the tools they need to succeed,” says CPDA president Terry Kippley.
The tariff announcements and updates have brought uncertainty to the crop protection product supply chain with near-term impacts.
“It’s making it difficult for importers to plan for the rest of this season and next season. They don’t know costs when the product arrives,” says Jim DiLisi, president of Fanwood Chemical.
There are only a few molecules made in the U.S. totally from domestic materials. The notable exceptions being glyphosate and 2,4-D. For example, Bayer’s domestic glyphosate production.
Per a Bayer spokesperson: "“Bayer is the only domestic manufacturer of glyphosate, producing a significant portion of the US market’s products.”
China, India and European countries are key importers for the ag chemical supply chain.
Specific to glyphosate, there was a bump in Chinese product imported before 2025. DiLisi authors a newsletter for Fanwood Chemical, which includes tracking of glyphosate imported from China. Nearly 40% more million tons of glyphosate acid was imported from China in the last four months of 2024 in comparison to 2023.
“There are high inventories of some things, but not everything,” he says.
Reflecting back to the first Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods, DiLisi makes the observation the trade policy did not dramatically change global sourcing patterns.
“I’ve looked at the key sources for 20 or so products looking back to 2017 and then in 2021,” DiLisi said. “There were some changes, but it was more because of plants that had explosions and closed than any other reason. The sourcing from international markets has become mandatory. It’s more likely that things will get expensive than change.”
