The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has launched its scheduled five-year “sunset review” of countervailing duties (CVD) on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia. While these duties were intended to protect domestic industry, the landscape has shifted: one of the nation’s two major phosphate producers is now calling for their removal.
The Cost of Protection
In place since April 2021, the CVDs have been a flashpoint for farmers and trade groups who argue the duties have artificially inflated input costs. Recent research backs those concerns:
- Texas A&M (AFPC): Found the CVD increased diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices by 28.6%, costing U.S. farmers an additional $6.9 billion between 2021 and 2025.
- Oklahoma State University: Estimated a 34% price hike on DAP specifically linked to Moroccan duties.
During an October congressional hearing, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) urged the administration to act, saying, “There is something that the Trump administration can do right now to help ease the burden for farmers: lowering the countervailing duties on phosphate from Morocco.”
Declining U.S. Production
The U.S. phosphate market is highly concentrated. Two producers—Mosaic and Nutrien—account for 90% of domestic volume (Mosaic’s share is roughly 75%).
In a statement, Nutrien said: “Based on evolving global phosphate supply and demand dynamics since 2021, we believe removing countervailing duties on phosphate imports would be a constructive step that supports U.S. farmer economics, balanced fertilizer application and agricultural productivity. Farmers and food security are at the center of everything we do, and we continuously engage with our customers and associations on issues that are important to U.S. agriculture.”
Mosaic has been contacted for a statement.
The Resource Reality
Opponents of the duties point to a stark reality: U.S. phosphorus rock extraction has plummeted by more than half since 1995, dropping from 45 million metric tons to just 20 million in 2023.
Globally, there are five key phosphate suppliers, in order of largest volumes of production: China, Saudia Arabia, Russia, Morrocco and the U.S.
The “Coin Flip” Outcome
Despite the pressure to remove duties, experts warn it may not be a silver bullet for high prices. Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, describes the ITC’s upcoming decision as a “coin flip.”
Even if the duties vanish, Linville notes that global headwinds remain.
“Whether the CVD rate is in place or not, it doesn’t fix the fact that China is not participating [in exports],” Linville said on the Top Producer podcast.
He notes that high anhydrous and sulfur prices—the two biggest variable costs in phosphate production—will keep a floor under prices.
He continues: “If we drop NOLA DAP prices by $100 per ton or $150, it would be phenomenal, but if it’s only $100 to $150 per ton, you’d see U.S. phosphate production be curtailed. We’ve got a finite amount of phosphate rock in this country. They are not going to be produce the tons of an upgraded product and sell them at a loss when they know it’s a finite supply. And once the market gets back to where we can make money, they’ll supply it again.”
