The Weekly Ag Strategist’s Briefing: July 31
The Watch List: What We Are Monitoring This Week
- Wage Inflation What will the impact be of new contracts from resolution of recent labor union strikes?
- Supply Chain Yellow Corporation, a large U.S. trucking company, shut down operations over the weekend and is preparing to file for bankruptcy protection. Will there be any impact on grain and farm input transportation?
- Grain Flash Sales Last week was a busy week (as indicated on slide X). Will the trend continue?
- Farmland Values USDA will release its annual farm real estate report, with per acre values for farmland, irrigated and dryland, pasture at the national and state level, and also average cash rental rates by state.
- China Malware Numerous news sources and magazines (including the New York Times, Forbes, Fox News, and even the South China Morning Post) reported that the Biden Administration is investigating Chinese Malware that could impair the U.S. military response in the event of a Chinese invasion into Taiwan.
- The U.S. Dollar Reserve Currency The nation of Bolivia has now joined Brazil and Argentina in accepting China’s currency to pay for imports and exports.
Events & Catalysts
- Monday July 31 The Federal Reserve Board will release the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Release (2:30pm), USDA Grain Inspections and Crop Progress
- Tuesday, August 1 CoreLogic Home Price Index (08:00 am), ISM Manufacturing (10:00), Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) (10:00), USDA Oilseed Crushing, Flour Milling and Grain Crushing
- Wednesday, August 2 EIA Weekly Ethanol Production
- Thursday, August 3 Initial Jobless Claims (08:30), ISM Non-Manufacturing (10:00), Manufacturing, Shipments, And Orders (10:00), Apple and Amazon earnings reports (4pm); USDA Grain Exports
- Friday, August 4 8:30 a.m. July U.S. jobs report for July will be released. Consensus: 200K job additions and no change to unemployment rate of 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.3% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) (10:00)
- This Week’s Earnings Reports The Andersons, Bunge, CF Industries, Corteva, FMC, Green Plains Energy, Mosaic, Nutrien, Mosaic, Scott Miracle Gro, Trimble
Grain Sales
Last week was a busy one for private export reports of large flash sales of grain to China and unknown destinations.
July 28
- 325,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year
- 171,460 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/2024 marketing year
- 413,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year
July 27
- 256,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year
July 26
- 272,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year
- 229,000 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year
July 24
- 121,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Numbers of Interest
-5% and +0.8% Through June, the index of agricultural prices received was 5% lower year/year, reflecting the losses for key commodities, while the index of agricultural prices paid was 0.8% higher, climbing at a slower speed than the monthly rate of inflation.
4 The number of well-known consumer brands—including Johnson’s, Listerine, Tylenol, and Neutrogena, that are now part of the Johnson & Johnson spin-off company, Kenvue, Inc.
332 Number of new highs on the New York Stock Exchange last week, compared to 35 new lows.
11 Number of times that the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates over the past 14 months.
49% Percentage of U.S. homes with equity value of at least 50% of market value vs. 27% prior to the pandemic
Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank.
