As more than 100 crop scouts traversed dirt roads and two-lane highways, stopping dozens of times to sample corn and soybeans in seven Midwest states, they gathered insights to answer the question on many farmers’ minds this week: How would the Pro Farmer estimates compare to the numbers USDA-NASS released August 12?
The answer: Pro Farmer found a big corn crop but one that’s currently positioned to average 182.7 bu. per acre – 6.1 bu. below USDA’s 188.8 bu. projection.
“When we put the yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1% for corn and a plus or minus 2% for soybeans, and that’s because we know things can change yet,” says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour.
“The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he adds.
With that perspective in play, here’s how the Pro Farmer and USDA estimates compare:
- Pro Farmer Corn Estimate (+-1%): 16.042 to 16.366 billion bushels; 180.9 to 184.5 bu. per acre average
- USDA Corn Estimate: 16.7 billion bushels; 188.8 bu. per acre average
Disease Pressure Across The Midwest Is Concerning
The 2025 growing season has been marred by heavy disease pressure in many of the corn and soybean crops Pro Farmer scouts evaluated this week.
It was an issue Lane Akre says showed up repeatedly in corn and soybean fields from the get-go, as tour scouts fanned out to check 2,000-plus fields across seven states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.
“We know disease can speed up the maturation of plants, making it difficult to keep them healthy long enough for optimal grain fill before harvest,” says Akre, Pro Farmer Economist and lead scout on the eastern leg of the tour. “We are concerned diseases like southern rust and tar spot could negatively impact corn yields in some of these states during the next few weeks.”
Soybeans Could Be the Star of the Season
USDA’s August estimate for the national soybean yield average is just slightly above what Pro Farmer scouts found in fields this week. Pro Farmer places the soybean yield average at 53.0 bu. per acre, with a total crop size of 4.246 billion bushels
By comparison, USDA expects soybeans to average a record high 53.6 bu. per acre, with a total crop of 4.29 billion bushels.
Pro Farmer Soybean Estimate (+-2%): 4.161 to 4.330 billion bushels; 51.9 to 54.1 bu. per acre
“One of the questions heading into the tour was whether the soybean crop could live up to the lofty expectations a lot of people have for it, and we found that it does,” Akre says. “There’s a massive crop out there in fields. We’re just hoping it can hold on until harvest – and outpace the disease pressure out there – to deliver on those big yields.”
Corn and Soybean Yield Summaries
Pro Farmer and AgWeb reported extensively throughout the tour — the highs and lows of each crop in each of the seven states. Here are summaries from each state. Click on the links to learn more details.
Illinois: Scouts reported an Illinois corn crop that looked lush from the road, but once they picked ears and pulled back husks, most described finding an average to above-average crop – not the record yield estimate USDA reported on August 12.
“The Illinois corn crop just wasn’t what we’d hoped,” Akre says. “USDA is anticipating a 1.7% jump from a year ago, and we’re actually down 2.2%.”
Indiana: Wet conditions from rain, fog and heavy due is causing some unevenness in Indiana corn and soybeans. Still, the state’s corn crop posted a yield number that came in 3.35% higher than its 2024 number.
From disease pressure to too much rain, some scouts found a solid soybean crop in Indiana, while other routes exposed extreme variability. Overall pod count numbers were down 2.30% from 2024.
Iowa: Scouts spent two days in the state gathering dozens of samples to gain insights and project yield estimates. Despite challenges from disease pressure, scouts reported a big corn crop with significant potential. Their estimates put the Iowa crop up 2.93% over 2024, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average.
“This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” reports Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.
For soybeans, scouts found a massive crop, up 5.49% in the number of pods as compared to the 2024 crop.
Minnesota: The corn crop in Minnesota is currently heading for a record yield this season, if it can outpace disease pressure. Scouts recorded the longest grain inches in the corn there that have ever been measured in the tour’s history.
“That’s definitely what pulled up that yield average for us,” Carolan says.
Soybeans also show tremendous yield potential in Minnesota. Pod counts were up 20.38% this week versus 2024 counts, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average.
Nebraska: Adequate moisture is pulling up corn yields in the state this season, with some tour routes reporting 8% to 10% increases compared to 2024 and 2023. The much-improved corn yield estimates were a welcomed change, scouts say, after seeing corn there struggle in two back-to-back years of drought.
Soybeans also are promising big yield results, with pod counts up 15.0% this week over the 2024 estimate.
Ohio: Heavy rains last spring meant many farmers either got a late start to the growing season or they had to replant fields. The moisture extremes early on have resulted in considerable variability in fields from one end of the state to the other. Still, scouts say the Ohio crop has solid corn yield potential overall, citing possible records along some Pro Farmer Crop Tour routes.
The soybean pod factory in Ohio is going strong – with numbers up 4.66% this season over 2024 – but scouts caution a lack of late-season moisture is concerning. More rain is needed for the soybean crop there to finish well.
South Dakota: Based on USDA’s August crop estimates, scouts knew the possibility was there to uncover a big crop in South Dakota. Field estimates show record yield potential is possible, especially due to ample moisture this year that’s supported growth and development.
Soybeans might be an even better story in South Dakota this year. Pod counts came in at 15.9% above last year’s tour and well above the three-year average of 970.1 pods.
For more insights from the 2025 Pro Farmer Crop Tour:
Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 4 Results from Iowa and Minnesota
Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa
Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska
Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota
