The Executive Briefing: August 7
Note from the Editor
This issue marks the 30th publication of the year and with that, I want to say THANKS to our readers. From this issue forward, the publication will be called The Executive Briefing which clarifies its purpose: to provide busy agribusiness and financial services executives with a “pre-flight checklist” for the week ahead.
We think the content (and the title) remain appropriate for those American farmers who also subscribe, since the husbands and wives making their livelihood from crop, livestock and dairy farming are in fact the CEOs, CFOs, and COOs of their operations.
We celebrate the farmer for all they do to ensure food security in the U.S. and abroad.
The Watch List: What We Are Monitoring This Week
- Macro-Economic Inflation comes back in focus this week with the Consumer and Producer Price Index reports on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
- Grain Sector Lots of focus on grains and oilseeds this week after last week’s sell-off in select ag commodities. We are watching the three “W’s”: WASDE, Weather and Wheat!
- Gasoline Prices Regular unleaded gas prices have risen by $0.30 or 8.5% to $3.83 / gallon over the past month, while E85 (15% ethanol blend) are up even more (+11.3%) to $3.16/gallon over the same period.
Upcoming Events & Catalysts
Mon, 8/07
- Grain Inspections (10am), U.S. Crop Progress (4pm), presentation to South Dakota Association of Cooperatives Annual Meeting / Conference (Sioux Falls, SD) (all day), Tyson Foods earnings report.
- Consumer Credit (2pm)
Tues, 8/8
- American Vanguard (AVD) earnings report.
- Trade Balance and U.S. Trade Balance (both 8:30am)
Wed, 8/09
- EIA Weekly Ethanol Production and Short-Term Energy Outlook reports, Darlington Ingredients earnings report.
- Kellogg Investor Day ahead of the planned split into two businesses.
Thurs, 8/10/2203
- USDA Weekly Export Sales
- Consumer Price Index (Expectations; reported CPI +0.2% month-over-month and +3.3% year-over-year (vs. 3.0% in June) and Core CPI + 0.2% month-over-month +4.8% year/year (same as June); Initial Jobless Claims (8:30am)
Fri, 08/11/2023
- USDA-FAS World Agricultural Production (WASDE), US Crop Production, Grains, Oilseeds and Cotton World Markets and Trade (12:00-12:15pm)
- Producer Price Index (8:30) (Expectations: Reported and Core PPI rising 0.7% and 2.5%, year/year (vs. Core PP’s 2.4% rise in June.), Michigan Consumer Survey (Preliminary) (10:00), NY Fed U.S. Economy in a Snapshot (11:00)
Numbers of Interest
187,000 U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 187k for July, below the 200k expected, while June NFP were revised down to 185k. Unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%
4.4% Average hourly earnings growth rose by 4.4% year/year vs. 4.2% expected, a modestly inflationary print. The probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 2023 FOMC meeting edged up slightly last Friday to 18.5%.
100% Current rate of inflation in Argentina
18% Gain in the KBW Regional Bank Index during July 2023, the best month on record since November 2016.
-650,000 The number of construction worker shortages in the U.S. ( according to LinkedIn, the labor shortage is so extreme that construction jobs now pay 80% more than the average non-farm job.
-50% Fall in value of U.S. malls since the 2016 peak (7 years ago) according to Barron’s, the worst performing subsector of U.S. commercial real estate.
Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank
