The Ag Analyst’s Briefing: Week of March 6 Watchlist
This Week's Watch List
WASDE
We’re looking for updates on grain exports and updates on Argentina and Brazil production when the USDA releases its March 2023 report.
E15
EPA is expected to publish rule approving summertime E15 for IL, IA, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, WI (effective 2024!)
Natural Gas
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) plans to triple its LNG export capacity to about 15M tons/year over the next several years
Black Seas Grain Deal
Opposing views: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: “the West is shamelessly burying” the export deal vs. US Secretary of State Blinken: in recent months Russia “deliberately and systematically” created a back log of grain.
China
The National People’s Congress begins its annual session in Beijing on Sunday. We expect to the legislature to rubber stamp several of President Xi Jinping’s plans to concentrate party power on three issues: national security, finance, and technology.
Numbers of Interest
- 2,002,700
Estimated number of U.S. farms in 2022, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), down 9,350 farms from 2021.
+18.2%
Rise in U.S. natural gas prices last week (amidst cold winter weather), in contrast to -11.8% drop in Dutch natural gas prices
30% & 50
There is now a 30% probability that the Fed will hike interest rates by 50bps at the March 22, 2023 FOMC meeting
$1,238
Current container shipping costs from China to L.A., down from $15,600 a year ago.
$20-$100 million
Expected price at auction for Nike Air Jordan sneakers worn by Michael Jordan during each of his six Chicago Bulls Championship wins.
4.93%
Last week’s price change for the Dow Jones Basic Materials Index
Upcoming Events
Week of March 6
- Factory Orders (Monday), Consumer Credit (Tuesday) Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), Payrolls and Employment Report (Friday)
March 7 to 8
- Fed Chair Powell delivers his semi-annual monetary policy report to lawmakers
March 8
- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report
March 9 to 11
- The 2023 Commodity Classic Farm Show
March 10
- Price Reactions to USDA Crop and Livestock Reports
March 18
- Expiration date for the Black Seas Grain Initiative unless extended again.
March 22
- Next rates decision by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee
Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Grains, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank.
