The Ag Analyst’s Briefing: Week of Dec. 19 Watchlist
In the Agri-food Executive Briefing for the week, seven items are highlighted on 'the watchlist':
- U.S. Dollar Strength
- DXY touched a six-month low of 103 last week, down from its recent peak of 115.
- China
- Wood Mackenzie estimates the reopening could drive crude oil prices to $91.50 vs. $79.64 presently.
- Food Inflation
- General Mills’ earnings report (due Tuesday the 20th) should provide additional data on U.S. food inflation and supply chains.
- GDP
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge will be released on Friday the 23rd (November personal income and expenditures also).
- PCE
- Final estimate for 3Q22 GDP of 2.9% expected Thursday the 22nd.
- Hogs / Pigs Report
- Will this be the 3rd consecutive year/year reduction in the December swine herd? Or has rebuilding begun?
- India
- Imports of Russian oil are set to hit a record this month, driven by a deeper discount on the country's crude.
Numbers of interest
17% According to Iowa State University, the average value of an acre of Iowa farmland jumped another 17%, or $1,660, to $11,411 per acre in 2022, after skyrocketing by 29% in 2021.
12% Food-at-home prices rose 12% year-over-year in November, according to the latest CPI data. Fresh produce, cereals, bakery products and dairy saw some of the biggest increases.
17 17 of 19 FOMC members project that the Federal Funds rate will exceed 5% in 2023 (actual dot plot shows 5.1%).
10 Months The Russia/Ukraine conflict will turn 10 months old on December 24th; at the outset, military pundits estimated the event would take 5 days.
1.2% Increase in global coal use in 2022 amidst the global energy disruption.
Does technology allow new models to proliferate in Ag financing beyond just lending and credit?
Let's look at four examples:
•FarmRaise helps producers track USDA program
•Figured provide accounting, forecasting and recently lending
•RealmFive delivers Smart Sites to enable efficient supply chain & labor-saving solutions
•Stable allow companies to manage risk
An article of interest: Europe to Tax Imports Based on GHG
Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Grains, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank.
