The Ag Analyst’s Briefing: Week of Jan. 9 Watchlist
On the watch list this week we have several USDA reports of interest as well as CPI on Thursday. Managed money has increased length in corn, soybean and soybean meal amidst dryness in Argentina. Saying of the week: “a meal rally is a real rally!”
Washington (while not mentioned in the Watch List) is always something to monitor. We like others, wonder what last week’s discourse in electing a Speaker of the House means for future discussions and negotiations over the debt ceiling.
The drop in natural gas and fertilizer prices is very noteworthy, while equity markets have begun the year higher. And while the value of global M&A deals fell 37% in 2022, economic uncertainty (and the need for growth) may fuel increased activity.
Week of Jan. 9 Watchlist:
Ag-Tech
John Deere revealed two of its latest projects at CESs: a new fertilizer-saving technology called ExactShot and an electric excavator. Further, it signed an MOU with AFBF regarding “the right to repair” outside of Deere dealerships._
CFTC
Funds have increased their long bets on Corn and Soybeans and have reduced their net short exposures on SRW Wheat and are record long in the Soy Meal market as concerns increase over Argentina dryness.
Social Unrest
Supporters of Brazil’s former president stormed the country’s Congress, Supreme Court and other offices over the weekend.?
WASDE
USDA’s monthly crop production, WASDE, quarterly grain stocks and winter wheat seedings reports come out this Thursday January 12th.
Economic Reports
Consumer Price Inflation and Jobs (Thursday), Consumer Credit (Tuesday), and University of Michigan (Go BLUE!) Consumer Sentiment (Friday) are some of the key reports this week, along with JPM and other bank earnings.
Numbers of Interest
- 33% The International Monetary Fund expects 1/3 of world economies to be in recession during 2023.
- -16% Decline for the February ‘23 U.S. Natural Gas futures contract between 12/31/2022 and 1/6/2023
- -11% Decline in the price of Anhydrous Ammonia prices in Iowa during the month of December 2022 vs. virtually no change in MAP or Potash (red) prices.
- -21% Decline in the U.S. deficit in November (to $61.5 billion), the lowest level since September 2020
- -37% Decline in the value of global M&A deals in 2022 (to $3.6 trillion)
Read more from Ken Zuckerberg and the "Crazy Train" ride for ag retail in 2023.
Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Grains, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank.
