Caleb Ragland describes 2026 as a year of extremes, whether the focus is on U.S. trade policy for soybeans or initial crop yields coming out of his Kentucky farm fields.
The frustration in his voice was palpable as he multitasked on Monday, harvesting with one of his three sons, Carter, in the combine and talking with Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, at the same time.
“Our corn yields are about 25% below APH (average production history) … and soybean yields are kind of all over the board,” says Ragland, a LaRue County, Ky., farmer and president of the American Soybean Association (ASA).
Poor yield outcomes are no surprise, Ragland says, given excessive spring rains that delayed planting. Then, the water faucet shut off mid-summer, just after July 4, and it never turned back on.
“I’m thankful yields aren’t lower than what they are,” he notes. “It’s disappointing but not unexpected.”
The same is true for U.S. soybean trade opportunities.
Ragland says the soybean industry and farmers have a “five-alarm fire” on their hands, due to the lack of sales to China this year.
Potentially adding to the flames was the Trump administration’s recent pledge of a $20-billion taxpayer-funded economic rescue package for Argentina.
The decision was questioned and criticized by lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle last week.
“Why would USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market??? We shld use leverage at every turn to help hurting farm economy Family farmers shld be top of mind in negotiations by representatives of USA,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said on X, formerly Twitter.
Argentina Sells Shiploads Of Soybeans To China
The American Soybean Association reports that Argentina turned around and sold 20 shiploads of soybeans to China soon after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the U.S. was exploring a financial package to shore up Argentine President Javier Milei.
Ragland believes the situation is just a continuation of what’s been going on much of this year: China doesn’t want to buy American soybeans due to ongoing retaliatory tariffs and trade disputes. In the process, U.S. soybean growers are caught in the middle between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump.
“Unfortunately, I think that’s the situation we’re in, and that doesn’t have a likely, quick, positive outcome,” he says. “But it’s pretty obvious that if we had the opportunity price wise, that our soybeans would sell, but I think that it’s likely a long battle that we’re in for here.”
Farmers Want Opportunity, Not A Handout
Ragland says ASA Economist Scott Gerlt estimates U.S. soybean growers will lose “well over” $100 an acre this year.
Furthermore, Ragland notes that rural communities are suffering from the lack of economic infusion that soybean sales and exports specifically to China would provide. He says when farmers spend money in their local communities, those dollars get turned over six to eight times, supporting small businesses and the entire rural economy.
One answer to the economic pain in rural America is an infusion of financial aid, Trump contends.
He told a group of reporters in Washington last Thursday his administration would “take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick into their benefit. So, we’re going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape, because we’re taking in a lot of money.”
Ragland says farmers don’t want to be dependent on the government for aid to meet their financial obligations. It’s a message he has said repeatedly this year in farmer and legislative meetings and to media.
“We have to have opportunities within the market. That’s key, but we’ve got to have a level playing field,” he says.
Even so, a farm aid package is likely in the works. According to an article posted to Politico Trump officials expect “Congress will need to authorize the use of tariff revenue for the farm aid package and are hoping lawmakers will include it in their omnibus package due by Nov. 21. That means the rollout of cash will likely start in early 2026.”
Your next read: Breaking Down the 4 Biggest Challenges Facing the Ag Economy
