Latest News From USDA Reports

USDA's April WASDE report showed larger wheat and soybean ending stocks, but smaller ending stocks for corn. More surprising, still, was the lack of changes to South America's crop estimates.

The March Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor found nearly 80% of those surveyed say soybeans pencils better than corn this year, but economists still increased their corn acreage projections slightly in the latest survey.

USDA cut its estimate for Brazil’s soybean production by 1 MMT in the March WASDE report, which was less than what the trade expected. USDA didn’t make any cuts to Brazil’s corn.

With larger-than-expected yield revisions to both corn and soybeans, it leaves one burning question: which states grew such big yields in 2023? USDA NASS released maps and charts to help answer that.

USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday. 

Despite weather concerns sprouting in Brazil, USDA didn’t make any major adjustments to the South American crop in Friday's reports. Increased demand from China and Mexico prompted USDA to trim U.S. ending stocks.

USDA upped its corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bu. to a 174.9 bu. per acre national yield. The agency also increased its demand estimate, which softened the potential blow of such a big jump in production.

There are just over two weeks for Congress to pass 12 spending bills to avoid a total government shutdown. If time runs out, one analyst says that could mean no USDA report in October and no yield cuts, which are likely.

One idea that has gained traction is USDA surveys may not be as accurate as current technology, especially satellite imagery, especially since the number of satellites has ballooned and the price has dropped.

USDA’s first farmer survey-based yield estimate offered few surprises, but analysts warn the estimates might already be out of date due to rain that fell after Aug. 1. USDA also made more cuts to demand.

The next opportunity for USDA to adjust its corn yield forecast is next week during the July WASDE report. Currently, USDA has penciled in a 181.5 bu. per acre national yield, but analysts think it may be too optimistic.

Farmers across the Texas High Plains received a deluge of rainfall right at planting, and while the moisture was needed, the sudden switch prevented some farmers from planting their intended cotton acres this year.

USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report, including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations.

Sluggish exports continue to be the main theme in the grain markets with USDA cutting both old and new crop ending stocks. Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says the bigger story moving forward might be soft corn demand.

USDA's 2023 Prospective Plantings report released March 31 shows farmers intend to plant significantly more corn acres in 2023. At nearly 92 million acres, that's a jump of 3.42 million acres from last year.

Just ahead of USDA's Prospective Plantings report, the largest cotton growing state in the U.S. is seeing another year of drought, and with fields resembling the Dust Bowl, crop prospects are dwindling by the day.

USDA’s first official net farm income forecast shows an expected 16% drop in 2023 net farm income, largely due to a decline in commodity prices and government payments with higher expenses and costs at the farm level.

USDA’s January reports last week sent some supply shocks to the market. The agency penciled in a 1.6 million-acre-drop to U.S. unharvested corn acres, but the bigger concern may be the trend of dropping demand.

A few surprises came out of USDA reports, including a 1.6 million acre drop in U.S. corn acres.  As a result, the U.S. crop balance sheets continued to tighten and corn and soybean prices shot up on Thursday.

Ahead of the report, analysts expected a drop in corn yield, but not soybean yield — and the market responded quickly, says Bill Biedermann, AgMarket.Net co-founder.

Corn Stocks Down 3 Percent from March 2020 Soybean Stocks Down 31 Percent All Wheat Stocks Down 7 Percent

Corn Planted Acreage Up Less than 1 Percent from 2020 Soybean Acreage Up 5 Percent All Wheat Acreage Up 5 Percent All Cotton Acreage Down Less than 1 Percent

WASDE for February raised exports and lowered ending stocks for both corn and soybeans.

January's Crop Production and Stocks reports from USDA raised a number of questions about big shifts in production projections. NASS Crops Chief Lance Honig addressed those questions on AgriTalk.

WASDE report leaves corn unchanged but projects smallest soy stocks since 2013/14.

January soybeans were up 6 cents at $11.75-3/4 a bushel after peaking earlier at $11.89-3/4, the highest for a most-active contract since June 13, 2016.

USDA released a slew of reports of Friday, initially sending markets lower.

WASDE bullish for wheat and cotton.

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2019 is estimated at 92.8 million acres, while soybean planted area for 2019 is estimated at 84.6 million acres.

With continued uncertainty around trade, sizeable stocks, flooding in the Midwest and fertilizer costs, will corn and soybeans keep all of these projected acres?

Uncertainty on trade issues and the subsequent price movements associated with speculation on the topic added a degree of difficulty to acreage decisions this year.

Friday is the day the USDA releases a mountain of grain reports all at one time because of a delay caused by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.