USDA Reports
There are just over two weeks for Congress to pass 12 spending bills to avoid a total government shutdown. If time runs out, one analyst says that could mean no USDA report in October and no yield cuts, which are likely.
One idea that has gained traction is USDA surveys may not be as accurate as current technology, especially satellite imagery, especially since the number of satellites has ballooned and the price has dropped.
USDA’s first farmer survey-based yield estimate offered few surprises, but analysts warn the estimates might already be out of date due to rain that fell after Aug. 1. USDA also made more cuts to demand.
The next opportunity for USDA to adjust its corn yield forecast is next week during the July WASDE report. Currently, USDA has penciled in a 181.5 bu. per acre national yield, but analysts think it may be too optimistic.
Farmers across the Texas High Plains received a deluge of rainfall right at planting, and while the moisture was needed, the sudden switch prevented some farmers from planting their intended cotton acres this year.
USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report, including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations.
Sluggish exports continue to be the main theme in the grain markets with USDA cutting both old and new crop ending stocks. Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says the bigger story moving forward might be soft corn demand.
USDA’s 2023 Prospective Plantings report released March 31 shows farmers intend to plant significantly more corn acres in 2023. At nearly 92 million acres, that’s a jump of 3.42 million acres from last year.
Just ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, the largest cotton growing state in the U.S. is seeing another year of drought, and with fields resembling the Dust Bowl, crop prospects are dwindling by the day.
USDA’s first official net farm income forecast shows an expected 16% drop in 2023 net farm income, largely due to a decline in commodity prices and government payments with higher expenses and costs at the farm level.
USDA’s January reports last week sent some supply shocks to the market. The agency penciled in a 1.6 million-acre-drop to U.S. unharvested corn acres, but the bigger concern may be the trend of dropping demand.
A few surprises came out of USDA reports, including a 1.6 million acre drop in U.S. corn acres. As a result, the U.S. crop balance sheets continued to tighten and corn and soybean prices shot up on Thursday.
Ahead of the report, analysts expected a drop in corn yield, but not soybean yield — and the market responded quickly, says Bill Biedermann, AgMarket.Net co-founder.
With continued uncertainty around trade, sizeable stocks, flooding in the Midwest and fertilizer costs, will corn and soybeans keep all of these projected acres?
Uncertainty on trade issues and the subsequent price movements associated with speculation on the topic added a degree of difficulty to acreage decisions this year.
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2019 is estimated at 92.8 million acres, while soybean planted area for 2019 is estimated at 84.6 million acres.
USDA released a slew of reports of Friday, initially sending markets lower.
January soybeans were up 6 cents at $11.75-3/4 a bushel after peaking earlier at $11.89-3/4, the highest for a most-active contract since June 13, 2016.
Corn Planted Acreage Up Less than 1 Percent from 2020 Soybean Acreage Up 5 Percent All Wheat Acreage Up 5 Percent All Cotton Acreage Down Less than 1 Percent
Corn Stocks Down 3 Percent from March 2020 Soybean Stocks Down 31 Percent All Wheat Stocks Down 7 Percent
January’s Crop Production and Stocks reports from USDA raised a number of questions about big shifts in production projections. NASS Crops Chief Lance Honig addressed those questions on AgriTalk.
WASDE for February raised exports and lowered ending stocks for both corn and soybeans.