The government shutdown and resulting absence of data from USDA has left a void in the volatile grain and oilseed markets. To fill the gap, Farm Journal conducted a survey to get an update on yields and harvest progress as well as other important topics on producers’ minds.
Based on more than 1,100 qualified responses from across the U.S., the biggest takeaway is that corn yields are estimated to be down compared with USDA’s September estimates in six of the seven Pro Farmer Crop Tour states. Due to disease pressure and dryness, the 2025 national corn yield could be lower than the 2024 average of 179.3 bu.
As of mid-October, yields are steady or lower for 74% of the respondents across the Crop Tour states, a far cry from higher production estimates for each state in USDA’s September Crop Production Report, says Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist. Traders and analysts saw production falling from the September USDA estimate of 186.7 bu. per acre to 185 bu., according to a pre-report poll from Bloomberg in early October. If production does shrink, as the Farm Journal survey indicates, the national average yield could fall to 178.5 bu. per acre.
When compared to 2024, the Farm Journal survey shows the biggest yield decline in the “I” states:
- Illinois at 7%
- Indiana at 4.6%
- Iowa at 3.2%
On the other hand, Minnesota at 3.8% and South Dakota at 3.3% are seeing yields come in higher than last season.
Soybean Harvest Progress Well Ahead of Corn
Corn harvest progress is on par with other private estimates at 43% on Oct. 15.
Soybean harvest is well ahead at 79% due to dry conditions.
“While we aren’t getting the weekly crop progress reports, they are still calling and the analyst average this week was 60%,” Akre says.
Storage Issues Especially Challenging in Northern Plains
Just over a third of all respondents in Farm Journal’s survey noted storage concerns as many producers are opting to store grain rather than take it to market. Storage issues are more prevalent in the northern Plains, with 56% of producers in South Dakota saying they are facing issues.
With China absent from the export market and soybean yields strong, basis levels in the northwestern Corn Belt have widened to levels not seen since the 2018 trade war. Storage piles are already stacking up at local elevators.
“We’re just a week into harvest and already seeing more piles than we have seen in years past,” says Kevin Deinert, a farmer from Mount Vernon, S.D. “If you look at total production and total storage capacity, we’re going to exceed our storage capacity by a considerable amount.”
Typically, farmers in the Dakotas sell soybeans right off the combine, but this year many are holding onto their crop, hoping for better prices down the road.
“The basis on corn is not great either, but it’s exceptionally bad on soybeans,” explains Todd Hanten of Goodwin, S.D. “I’m going to store it all and try to capture some better basis in the future.”
David Struck, a farmer from Wolsey, S.D., is also storing beans with the hope come January and February, he’ll be able to move them and get a better price.
Based on CoBank estimates, the nation will be short 73 million bushels of upright grain storage this year, a dramatic shift from last year’s surplus.
“When you pull out to the 12 major corn-producing states, and that includes soybeans, we’re going to be short by about 1.4 billion bushels of storage capacity,” says Tanner Ehmke, CoBank’s grain and oilseeds economist. “Last year, we were long by about 360 million bushels.”
Farmers Still Support Tariffs
Despite the ongoing trade war with China, which has weighed heavily on row-crop prices, more than 60% of respondents say they support tariffs. Many are hopeful that aggressive trade policies will pay dividends once it is all said and done.
