Farm Economy
After years of losses, debt is piling up and new government payments won’t fill the hole. At a breaking point, more farmers are expected to leave the business this year, some by choice, others forced out by lenders.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
Heading into 2026, markets hinge on EPA biofuel rules, global fertilizer supply and acreage shifts. StoneX warns tight inputs, policy delays and weather risk will shape crop prices and farm margins.
Will 2026 be a repeat of 2016? Chris Barron, Ag View Solutions, shares four strategies to help farmers capture some profit in this down cycle.
Arkansas farmer Nathan Reed says irrigation, insurance limits and global competition are deepening the downturn as Southern producers are now deciding what to plant based on what will lose the least amount of money.
Farmers weigh in on the pros and cons of federal aid programs and what they believe is needed to adopt regenerative practices in today’s environment of tight margins.
New research is literally testing the waters to see if post-harvest fields offer an untapped profit opportunity for farmers.
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.
Farmers need to be prepared to pay substantially more for their coverage in 2026, unless Congress acts now to address the impending price surge.
Record corn exports are tightening stocks and lifting prices, but long-term strength depends on expanding domestic demand. Could year-round E15 overcome legislative hurdles in Washington and change the market trajectory?
Commodity prices have not kept pace with rising costs, leaving many row crop growers struggling to keep their operations on positive footing headed into the new year.
The bridge payment announcement coincides with the busiest time of year with higher volumes of land sales; 40% or greater of annual volumes occur in the fourth quarter for some ag real estate companies.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says China is making progress on its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans, hitting the “correct cadence,” with purchases expected to wrap by February 2026 — underscoring ongoing trade commitments and support for farmers.
Paul Neiffer provides an update on SDRP as well as ARC-PLC payments. Plus, are you aware the IRS has released guidance on new bank loan interest deductions? The Farm CPA gives a quick overview of that opportunity, too.
USDA’s Brooke Rollins says the financial details will be unveiled next week. Some groups estimate payments could total in the neighborhood of $12 billion. “There’s people that can really use them. Everyone can use them…but we’re not getting real solutions,” says one Iowa farmer.
The Dec. 1 sale in Sioux County not only sets a farmer-buyer record for Iowa, but according to Jim Rothermich, it highlights fierce demand for premium ground as lower-quality farms see more no sales.
USDA says anticipated trade aid could be announced the first week of December, but ag economists are split on whether payments would provide relief or worsen lingering risks such as high input costs and market distortions.
Going into the final weeks of the year, many growers across the country are shouldering significant financial strain from land rent payments, rising input costs, and efforts to stay in business and viable until commodity prices improve.
Annual survey shows a traditional meal with all the fixings will require fewer dollars per person this year. But look to shell out more dollars if turkey isn’t the only meat on your menu.
Reflecting a marked decline in expectations as margins tighten, ag lenders surveyed in mid-2025 report only around 52% of their farm-business borrowers will remain profitable this year.
Kansas State University’s Joe Parcell says livestock revenues make up more than half of the state’s projected $6.2 billion increase, but volatility across its rural economies signals continued uncertainty ahead.
The Farm Action co-founder says it’s time for agriculture to face an uncomfortable truth. From cattle to crops, American agriculture must rebuild from the ground up or face a tough reality: U.S. agriculture no longer feeds the world.
Producers nationwide face thin or negative margins, rising input costs and economic pressure not seen in decades — forcing some to make the tough choice of whether they can afford to keep farming.
Some analysts believe a deal with Beijing will happen this week because of a potential gap in availability of the oilseed that’s likely to occur between the time the U.S. bean harvest ends and the Brazil harvest begins.
Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist.
Farm economists say today’s ag slowdown “isn’t a collapse, but it’s a grind.” From trade woes to rising costs and consolidation, experts warn recovery could take time, even as livestock markets stay strong.
Some row-crop growers are converting acres, banking on long-term opportunities with beef. Others are staying the course with crops but embracing ways to add some dollars to their bottom line in the short-term.
Economic conditions and outlook weigh heavier on crops rather than livestock operations.
Iowa farmland values remain strong despite lower grain prices and rising financial stress. Tight supply, local farmer demand and low debt keep land prices surprisingly resilient.
As Jed Bower takes the helm at NCGA, he is working to expand market opportunities in the U.S. and abroad, and looking for practical ways to reduce regulatory burdens on farmers.