Looking for inspiration for this column, I asked ChatGPT to rank the top 10 ag technology news stories from the past two months. I was hoping to find cutting-edge U.S. tech startups on the verge of changing the world. Instead, I found that the world has seemingly changed overnight; nine out of 10 stories originated in India.
What if the AI wasn’t wrong? What if the best agricultural technology is no longer being developed in the U.S. or Canada? What if the competitive advantage we’ve relied on for decades, our technological superiority, has quietly slipped away?
Perfect Storm Hits Home
Let’s start with where we are right now: low commodity prices, high input costs and a strong dollar that makes our exports more expensive.
China’s preference for Brazilian soybeans and a U.S. dollar that has appreciated 8% since late September 2024 are diminishing the competitiveness of American exports. The traditional safety nets — government programs, crop insurance, even Technology with a capital T — aren’t cushioning the blow like they used to.
Technology was supposed to be our ace in the hole. For decades, American farmers leveraged superior equipment, better supply-chain infrastructure, and precision agriculture technologies to compete against producers with less capital overhead. We couldn’t match Brazil on freight costs or India on labor rates, but we could out-tech them. Our efficiency was the equalizer. Except now, it isn’t.
Technology Goes Global
Here’s what AI got right about India: The Saagu Baagu initiative, a collaborative effort by India’s government, the World Economic Forum and the Gates Foundation, has enhanced yields for 7,000 chili farmers in the state of Telangana. Launched in 2021, farmers in the program are seeing a 21% increase in yields per acre and doubling their earnings through agri-tech and data management, according to a World Economic Forum report.
This isn’t a small pilot project. India’s agri-tech market is anticipated to reach $25 billion by 2025. Almost under the radar, India has established one of the largest agricultural research systems in the world, with 800-plus agribusiness startups already operating in agriculture and agri-technology, based on reports from the Indian government.
Now let’s turn to Brazil, our biggest competitor in soybeans and increasingly in corn. Brazilian producers using precision agriculture have achieved yields approaching the U.S. equivalent of 90 bu. per acre. Brazil’s national average soybean yields now outpace U.S. yields at 52 bu. versus 51 bu. per acre. That yield gap is likely to grow as yield gains are increasing 0.78 bu. per acre per year over the past 10 years in Brazil while U.S. trend lines have flatlined.
Part of this is happening because substantial investments are being made in Brazilian agriculture. Brazilian ag tech startups received over BRL 1 billion (approximately US $177 million) in 2024, the second-highest year on record. Brazil’s precision agriculture market is predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 17.97% from 2024 to 2030, according to MarkNtel Advisors market research. The percentage growth of the U.S. precision ag market during the same period is expected to be only half that of Brazil’s.
You know the safety warning on your car’s side-view mirror? (Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.) That sums up what’s happening to the U.S. when it comes to global grain production.
Competing countries have taken our agricultural playbook, adapted it to their conditions and improved upon it — all while operating with fundamentally lower cost structures. They’re combining cheaper land, lower labor costs and advanced technology. When viewed through that lens, the U.S. now looks more like the underdog rather than the lead dog when it comes to production prowess.
Exports Adjust to New Reality
As this global power play plays out, U.S. farmers’ wallets are getting lighter. The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is expected to hit a record $49.5 billion in 2025, roughly 56% higher than the previous year’s fiscal year’s projected $30.7 billion shortfall. Agricultural exports account for more than 20% of the value of U.S. farm production, according to a report by EconoFact.
For the moment, U.S. agriculture can still claim productive parity and a superior supply chain, but we face crushing margin pressure from high land and machinery costs. Meanwhile, with the help of China, Brazil has developed logistics corridors that dramatically reduce freight costs, and India’s cost-efficient digital tools are creating efficiencies we can’t match on price alone.
In today’s world, technology diffusion is faster than it’s ever been. An innovation developed in Iowa can be deployed in São Paulo or Mumbai within months, not years. The moat we built around American agricultural technology? It’s been drained. The question we have to answer is whether we can maintain global market share when technology no longer provides a decisive advantage and our cost structures remain stubbornly higher?
The Hard Truth
Immediate action is needed if we don’t want to relive the U.S. farm crisis of the 1980s. Our competitors have hopped on the agriculture technology treadmill, and right now they are running the faster race. We cannot afford to lose this technology race to our competitors.
The urgency is real. We need a genuine U.S. agricultural technology moon shot that catapults U.S. farmers back into the lead. I’m talking about a coordinated, ambitious push from both public and private sectors that we haven’t seen since the Green Revolution.
Here are a few places to start:
- First, if the U.S. is going to win the AI race, then U.S. agriculture better win the global agriculture AI race. It is estimated that only 10% of U.S. farms are currently using even the most basic AI tools. As a vital domestic industry, we need to move quickly beyond basic data collection to genuine AI-driven decision systems. Such a move by 75% of U.S. farms could yield an estimated 15% to 20% boost in output per acre.
- Second, there needs to be farm policy at the federal level that promotes rapid technology advancement, whether it be R&D or adoption at the farm level. We need coordinated public-private innovation partnerships that focus on affordable, practical solutions with rapid ROI — technologies that pay off in three years or less. India has already adopted such a model. Along with this, farmers need Congress to do its job and pass a farm bill, but this time be bold enough to put as much emphasis on technological adoption as it does conservation initiatives.
- Finally, farmer groups from commodity associations to the American Farm Bureau need to rethink how agriculture technology gets funded and disseminated. Why aren’t farmers given more of a chance to fund ag tech projects that actually benefit them instead of Ph.D. grad students who want to save modern agriculture through another iPhone app? Why not vote to invest commodity checkoff funds in actual tech companies where producers may actually be able to double-dip from not only the production benefits but also the financial success of the technology itself?
These are just the start of the actions and ideas that must be taken. The to-do list is long. Time isn’t on our side, and neither is complacency.
Who knew that a simple AI search about ag tech would lead to the question of whether American agriculture will lead or follow in the decades ahead? The even tougher question: How many American farmers will be left standing to lead the charge?
Steve Cubbage is a precision ag consultant and farmer from Nevada, Mo. He is the founder of Longitude 94, an agriculture sustainability and technology consulting business.
