Farmers who wait until spring to buy crop protection have paid more every season since 2020 according to FBN data, and the company expects 2027 to reward early buyers again.
On FBN member invoices, the 10 most-purchased active ingredients cost an average of 12.7% more in May and June than in the November and December before, according to the company’s 2027 Crop Protection Market Outlook, an early copy of which Farm Journal received ahead of its public release next week.
“There’s a big takeaway here, and that’s book early,” John Appel, an FBN vice president, says on AgriTalk.
The report expects most key active ingredients to be flat to higher next year. S-metolachlor and generic pyroxasulfone are the main exceptions, with prices easing. It recommends planning for a modest increase in chemical budgets and booking the core of a program this fall and winter.
The Cost of Waiting
The spring premium has varied widely. It ranged from 5.2% in 2024 to 27.8% in 2022, and was 6.8% last year, according to the report.
“It’s about 12.7% more expensive to buy in the May and June timeframe as it is in the November and December timeframe. So that pre-season window does pay,” Appel says.
Buying early also protects supply.
“There is an element to locking in supply, where otherwise it might [be] short,” he says.
The report adds that freight capacity is tight and diesel is near record highs, which raises the risk of missing a spray window when ordering in-season.
What Is Pushing Prices Up
Appel points first to oil.
“Oil has been pretty persistent around $100 a barrel. And given a lot of the chemistries are derived from oil in some way, that has a pretty significant impact on the precursor materials and thus the manufacturing costs of these technical AIs,” he says.
The report cites methanol, a key raw material for glyphosate, up 54% in China from early August to mid-October.
Freight and diesel add to the bill.
“We have diesel over $6 a gallon, and we have ocean freights that are almost two times what they were at this point last year,” Appel says.
FBN estimates that moving imported product from China to a Midwest farm adds about $1.49 per gallon at today’s spot rates.
“It’s about a 10% cost increase just to get it here,” Appel says of a $15-a-gallon product.
The report says freight is the largest share of the price for low-cost, high-volume products such as glyphosate, glufosinate, atrazine and 2,4-D.
Glyphosate is moving first.
“We’ve seen increases of about 14% since August on glyphosate, and we expect that’s going to continue going forward,” Appel says.
The report puts the rise in Chinese glyphosate technical at about 14% in five weeks through mid-October. FBN members paid an average of $20.61 per gallon in 2026 so far, up from $18.64 in 2025.
China Exposure and Trade Risk
Much of the market depends on one supplier country. “In some molecules, it’s up to 99%,” Appel says. The report puts China at 97% of U.S. glyphosate imports in 2025, 100% of atrazine in 2024 and about 85% of glufosinate.
A 12.5% tariff on most Chinese goods remains in place during the trade truce. “What’s going to happen after the truce, I think, is anybody’s guess, but likely not going to go away, in our opinion,” Appel says.
The report adds dates to watch. The U.S.-China truce ends Jan. 10, 2027, and a Section 301 decision covering 16 economies is due by March 2027. It also notes that glyphosate is now a Defense Production Act priority. FBN advises securing part of glyphosate and other China-sourced needs before January.
Where Supply Is Tightening
Glufosinate is the clearest case. “Another big molecule like glufosinate has a significant shortage of an intermediate to produce it,” Appel says.
Buyers had enjoyed falling prices. “They got to levels that were $13 to $14 a gallon. But we’ve seen that price quickly bounce over the last couple of months, and growers should pencil in a pretty substantial increase when they’re thinking about their budgets for this year,” he says. The report says glufosinate technical in China rose 46% from August to September, and factory inventory hit a record low of 1,130 tons.
The report also flags paraquat. Syngenta is ending global production of Gramoxone, with sales continuing only until supplies run out or Dec. 31, 2026. The report expects higher paraquat prices and recommends a backup burndown plan using Group 14 herbicides tank-mixed with glyphosate or glufosinate.
Generics: Where to Save
“There aren’t a lot of ways to save money on a farmer’s P&L, but switching to generics is often one of the best ways to do that,” Appel says.
He points to pyroxasulfone, a Group 15 herbicide with residual activity.
“This is newly available as a generic product, and is probably going to have a significant impact on that Group 15 market, where costs are coming down to make that type of application. That’s a new option for farmers this year,” he says.
The report says branded pyroxasulfone (Zidua SC) is already within about $3 per acre of S-metolachlor and acetochlor, and that a wave of generics could push prices for both pyroxasulfone and S-metolachlor lower. S-metolachlor supply is ample after the European Union stopped approving it and production capacity in China and India expanded. On FBN Direct, its price fell 12% between pre-season and in-season, from $41.75 per gallon in November and December 2025 to $36.58 in April and May 2026.
The Cost of Money
The report adds a factor–The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and the prime rate is 7.00%. FBN says interest can eat up to a third of the savings from booking early.
FBN’s answer is its own financing program. It offers 0% interest through Dec. 31, 2027 on FBN input purchases made by Sept. 30, 2027, for members who spend $7,500 or more on FBN products by Dec. 21, 2026, or $20,000 or more across at least four products by Feb. 15, 2027. Loans run from $10,000 to $750,000, with credit approval required.
About the Data
Price figures come from FBN member-submitted invoices and FBN Direct prices, and market data such as freight, diesel, Chinese raw material prices, tariffs and interest rates reflect public sources as of October 2026. The report says rebate and bundle programs are not reflected in the invoice-based figures.
