This Week’s Watch List
Banking System: Numerous measures were announced over the weekend in response to SVB which now appear to reduce the risk of financial contagion.
Diverging Market Narratives: Markets are telling two different stories, with treasury bonds anticipating a recession while stocks and corporate bonds had been telegraphing a soft goldilocks landing (prior to Friday’s response to SVB’s insolvency.)
Inflation Data: This week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports February CPI and PPI data, which will be key inputs for the Federal Reserve to consider as it meets later this month vis a vis continued rates hikes.
Russia/Ukraine: Debate and discussion continues about extension of the Black Seas Grain Initiative, set to expire on Saturday, March 18th.
Dutch Farmers Protest: Dutch farmers are protesting in The Hague before the regional elections that include Senate seats in the Netherlands; they’re protesting the government’s plan to purchase and take out of production 3,000 farms to meet lower nitrogen emission standards
Numbers of Interest
311,000 Number of jobs created in February reported on Friday, above 225,000 expected, but down from revised 505,000 in January. (Unemployment rate now 3.6% vs. 3.4% prior.) Hourly wages gained 0.2%, the smallest in several years.
6.0% Expected annual change in February CPI vs. 6.4% in January.
5.4% Expected annual change in February PPI vs. 6.0% in January.
2.4 million Number of people in the U.S. that have chronic hepatitis B according to the CDC
21,714 Number of ultra-wealthy individuals with net worth of at least $30 million and primary / secondary homes in New York.
41 million Number of vinyl records sold during 2022, outselling CD sales (of 33 million) for the first time since 1987 (35 years!)
Upcoming Events
March 13-14 Texas Agriculture Cooperative Council 2023 Conference (Ken Zuckerberg providing Keynote on the Agriculture Economy)
March 11-15 World AgTech Innovation Summit 2023 (Ken Zuckerberg hosting a panel on agtech and fintech)
March 14 February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report
March 13 to 17 Earnings reports by various industrial and consumer companies (Lennar, Caterpillar)
March 15 February retail sales data (Census Bureau) and February Producer Prices Index (PPI) report
March 17 University of Michigan (GO BLUE!) Consumer Sentiment Index report for March. Expectations for 67.4, flat month/month, but the highest in a year.
March 18 Expiration date for the Black Seas Grain Initiative.
March 22 Next rate decision by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC); expectations leaning towards 25bps hike.
