Worries About Wheat Crop as Winter Weather Blasts Below Freezing Temps Across Wheat Belt

As much of the Plains thaws out from the winter weather that gripped the country last week, concerns are continuing to sprout about potential damage to winter wheat.

Arlan Suderman, of StoneX, says 30% of the hard red winter wheat belt saw damage-level temperature thresholds last week and that with the combination of little snow cover in some of those areas, the wheat crop will be more susceptible to damage.

However, Suderman points out wheat is a hardy crop, and so just because conditions were ripe for damage, that doesn’t necessarily mean you should count the crop out.

“I’ve seen winterkill, and I’ve seen wheat that should have been killed that wasn’t and wheat that shouldn’t have been killed that was,” says Suderman. “Be wary of anyone who says we have ‘X’ amount of damage from an event or that says there was no damage from an event.”

While Suderman says it’s impossible to determine the extent of the damage at this point, he says you can’t underscore just how brutal of conditions many wheat fields experienced last week.

“Based on four decades or so of working in the industry and watching these events happen, I can say that this was the worst event in my memory, as far as depth of cold duration for cold and lack of snow cover over Kansas, parts of Colorado, western Oklahoma, and the northern Texas Panhandle,” he adds. “Normally, a healthy wheat plant is vulnerable to damage at five to 10 degrees below zero; we were at 20 to 30 degrees below zero, with insufficient snow cover over about 30% of the hard red winter wheat belt.”

Suderman called last week’s winter wheat exposure to extreme cold temperatures a very high risk event, but based on market reaction to the weather last week, Mark Gold, of Top Third, says it’s clear the damage is still unknown.

“One day we’re up 15 to 20 cents, the next day we’re down 15 to 20 cents, and then we’re back up 20 cents on Thursday, so we can expect a lot of volatility,” says Gold.

Gold says while opinions and estimates of damage vary widely, it will be a guessing game until the crop breaks dormancy.

“We’re not going to know really anything until we come out of dormancy,” says Gold. “That will be the real test. So, to lay your money down now because there’s potential damage out there may be a foolish bet. But again, we really won’t know until we come out of dormancy.”

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