Markets - General
From more corn acres than expected to a large increase in corn and soybeans currently being stored on farm, market watchers are still digesting USDA’s big June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.
Chicago wheat futures rose on Thursday as Russia declared a state of emergency in key grain-growing regions due to frosts, while corn and soybeans also edged up.
EPA’s new model is designed to address previously identified shortfalls in the R&D GREET model and how it calculated lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. The new approach accounts for all emissions from farm to fuel.
So far, 12 states out of the 18 total reporting acres of corn planted are ahead of the five year average.
As drought deteriorates across the U.S., it’s a positive signal for growing a big crop in 2024. And analysts say if weather continues to fuel this year’s crop, December corn futures could fall into the $3 range by fall.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought coverage is now at its lowest level since spring of 2020, but USDA’s topsoil moisture map shows it’s still extremely dry in areas of the west and too wet in the east.
USDA’s April WASDE report showed larger wheat and soybean ending stocks, but smaller ending stocks for corn. More surprising, still, was the lack of changes to South America’s crop estimates.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a gauge of economists’ views on the ag economy. While outlooks have grown weaker, it’s the erosion in the future outlook that is sprouting fresh concerns.
While the expectation is for cotton acres to increase in the June acreage report, another key question is if cotton demand can continue to find footing and support higher prices.
“We are really in a second phase of ag tech,” says Ryan Raguse, co-founder of Bushel. “We aren’t in an overly mature state—we’re still somewhere in the middle ground.”
Reports say China has purchased more than 20 cargoes of feed grain in the past two weeks. Where is China buying from, and what’s behind the sudden surge?
No step is too big for Top Producer finalist, PJ Haynie. Deep family roots are the foundation of his farming legacy.
Brazil is seeing a sudden shift in weather with heavy rains now forecasted over the next two weeks. While it will bring relief to drought areas, it could cause harvest delays and issues planting the safrinha corn crop.
Welcome to a $9 million orgy of crop insurance fraud by an unassuming farm couple.
After Kevin Whitney’s iPhone fell into 220,000 bushels of grain, the device made a 20,000-mile roundtrip across the globe before returning to its stunned owner.
AgResource Company forecasts 80% of the soybean crop is planted as of today, but for some farmers it’s been a year of replant for both corn and soybeans.
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USDA upped its corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bu. to a 174.9 bu. per acre national yield. The agency also increased its demand estimate, which softened the potential blow of such a big jump in production.
Corn and soybean prices seem stuck. So, what catalyst could it take to move commodity prices higher? There are a few, but analysts say the reality is there’s simply no story at the moment.
As pork producers’ potential profits continue to erode this year, some economists say 2023 could be financially worse than 1998, which is unearthing concerns about contraction, restructuring and vertical integration.
If Congress doesn’t pass stopgap funding, crop production and progress reports will probably stall. That won’t bode well for markets. “Usually it means that we’ve got some selling pressure ahead,” says one analyst.
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Ag economists’ view on the ag economy is starting to erode. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows lower commodity prices, concerns about demand and a negative outlook for China’s economy.
Both Dan Basse and Chip Nellinger say considering how dry it’s been, crop yields could be falling, and USDA may be forced to make more cuts to the national yield forecasts in upcoming reports.
There are just over two weeks for Congress to pass 12 spending bills to avoid a total government shutdown. If time runs out, one analyst says that could mean no USDA report in October and no yield cuts, which are likely.
Even with red flags with demand and the economy, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows economists continue to be impressed with the staying power of the U.S. ag economy, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole.
Drought is impacting operations along the Panama Canal, one of the largest shipping channels in the world, with restrictions now placed on both the number of ships, as well as the amount of cargo they can carry.
Tyson Foods’ decision to shutter four poultry processing plants, combined with Smithfield Foods announcing the closure 35 Missouri pig farmers, are strong signals that rapid consolidation is already underway.
Sixty-five percent of farmers surveyed in July expect interest rates to climb in the next 12 months. On a positive note, 7 out of 10 said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain roughly the same for 2024.
The grain markets continue their steady march upward. March corn prices were up 34.25¢ and March soybean prices were up 41.75¢ for the week.
Crop condition ratings seemed to be in a free fall in early summer, but July’s rains and cooler temperatures sparked a rebound. The heat this week means crop conditions could be set to take another hit.
The price rally that started in the fall of 2020 definitely attracted more corn acres in 2021. That was confirmed in USDA’s June Acreage report.