In a rare move by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the agency announced on Wednesday a possible adjustment to the U.S. corn and soybean acreage picture. Based on updated data, the notice sets the stage for a possible change in both planted and harvested acreage in the upcoming September Crop Production report.
In the news release, NASS says the review typically takes place in October. The September report typically focuses on possible planted or harvested acreage changes for southern crops such as cotton, peanuts and rice. The NASS notice announced the adjustments to planted or harvested acres could come for corn, cotton, peanuts, rice, sorghum, soybeans and sugarbeets. NASS says the change will happen if updated data warrant a change. This type of adjustment, for such a broad range of crops, is typically made in the October report.
“USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will review all available data, including survey data, satellite-based data, and the latest information from USDA’s Farm Service Agency and Risk Management Agency, for planted and harvested acreage for corn, cotton, peanuts, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and sugarbeets in preparation for the September Crop Production report,” NASS said in a statement. “If the data review justifies any changes, NASS will publish updated planted and harvested acreage estimates in the Sept.10 report.”
Traders and analysts are already reacting to the news. Pro Farmer says FSA certified acreage data signals there’s grounds for at least a cotton acreage cut, but possibly other crops, as well.
“NASS normally doesn’t incorporate FSA certified acreage data into its corn and soybean crop estimates until October,” says editor of Pro Farmer Brian Grete. “The inclusion in the September Crop Production Report this year, if needed, gives the impression there is something in FSA’s initial data released in August to justify the earlier review. Our analysis of the initial FSA data suggested corn plantings could be increased around 1 million acres from the June estimate, which we incorporated into the Pro Farmer national corn crop estimate we released Aug. 20 after Crop Tour.”
“USDA has apparently seen the updated FSA acreage, whereas we the public have not,” says Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group. “It’s possible that they have seen something there that we do not yet know about, but the August FSA data suggested a modest increase in corn acreage, and a modest decrease in soybeans – less than 1 million acres each way.”
AgriTalk’s Chip Flory called the notice “unusual,” and says that this could be a sign corn acres are going up nearly 1 million acres from the June planted acreage report, which is the current chatter in the trade this week.
Permanent or Temporary Change?
So, could this change in reporting acreage be a permanent change? Farm Journal asked Lance Honig, Crops Branch Chief for USDA’s NASS, that exact question via email Wednesday.
“At this point we are only committing to this year. We will evaluate whether or not to make a change moving forward at a later time,” he says.
USDA’s June acreage report was a bit of a shock to the trade, with corn planted acreage coming in at 92.7 million acres, and soybean planted acreage at 87.6 million, which were lower than trade expectations. Those estimates were based on grower survey responses.
