Matt Makens from Makens Weather will present at the 2025 ARA Conference and Expo. On The Scoop Podcast, he shares a recap of the weather trends most effecting agriculture in 2025 and gives a preview for his outlook going into 2026.
Here are three top observations:
First Push of Cold
“This week and last week, too, the last couple of weeks, we’ve been chatting about this big freeze that’s hitting the U.S.,” he says. “It was the first really strong seasonal push of cold, and it went all the way down to the Gulf.”
Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns
Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which he says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.
And there’s dryness effecting the inland river systems as Makens is also watching dry weather over the past 45 days effecting the Mississippi River Valley.
Surprises This Summer Set New Expectations
Maken says this past summer is an example of how seasonal forecasts were set, but then the observations of those forecasts were delayed. And therefore, it comes down to the science and communicating it better to help those who could be effected in the industry.
“We really have to be much more on top of long-term seasonal weather forecasts and the impact, because there was some indication by May, and certainly by June, that this summer is not going to be what we would normally think of for summer and here are some impacts. And if we can do a better job of communicating that probability then, any retailer, any producer, anybody, that had those impacts at least would have had a better idea in their head that it was possible. At least they would say, oh, there’s a 1 in 3 chance that this panned out.”
Looking Into 2026
As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we may start with a La Nina, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Nino.
“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Nina and El Nino are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Nino. Others really do not like the person saying that.”
Makens says there have been 25-year cycles to these weather patterns, with our current cycle producing more La Nina events. This has been a factor in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.
“It increases your risk of severe weather events, including hail and wind,” he says.
Regarding increased precipitation and flooding, he says “There are long-term patterns of shifting precipitation, like huge bullseyes, several states’ size, and where that precipitation area moves. And over the last 100 years, it’s been moving progressively into the Corn Belt and northwest of the Corn Belt. What impact does that bring? It increases your risk of flooding. increases your overnight temperatures, so now your sugaring processes are now different. Now we’ve discovered, over the last couple of decades, we’ve increased the amount of precip in corn regions by at least a third, by at least 30%, on top of what naturally would be there.”
Two Livestock-Related Updates
Makens is watching two livestock pest threats—from the north and the south.
Regarding New World Screwworm, he say research from the last big outbreak in the 1950s/1960s showed the ideal temperature for the flies, which is between 80 and 82 degrees.
“Once we pass September and October, really the only habitable location for these flies in a typical year would be far south Texas, Florida, perhaps southern New Mexico, perhaps Southern California,” he says.
For next year, he’s watching the seasonal wind pattern that moves the flies from central or southern Mexico starting in May.
“That is a big concern for next year, because the only way to control them is a sterile fly technique. And to date, we do not have a facility anywhere near completion to control that, so we have to rely on the weather to do our controlling for us.”
With some earlier than normal infections of HPAI, Makens says weather is a factor in the spread of the disease, but it’s a bit harder to track.
“In winters like this. our temperatures will be very volatile. There’ll be swings of very, very warm days. And then very, very cold days. And I think there is a connection to bird flu spread in those warmer periods,” he says.
Click here to learn more about the 2025 ARA Conference and Expo, Dec. 2 to 4 in Salt Lake City.
