How To Predict Farm Profitability With Yield History

How can advisers help their growers remain viable when the economic pitfalls are out of their control? One way is to help them research each field’s yield history.

Harvest - By Lindsey Pound.jpg
(Lindsey Pound)

By Daniel Fowler, NAICC president

For the past 25 years, we’ve tried to base crop recommendations around proven IPM and all crop fertilization based on soil test results and Liebig’s law of the minimum. I feel this has, for the most part, served our clients well. This winter, while sitting down having conversations with growers about cutting waste and maximizing efficiency in inputs, there isn’t much fat left for them to trim. However, for some clients, this isn’t enough — and that’s difficult to say. Agronomically, I still believe this ‘Keep it Simple’ approach is the foundation to any successful farm operation, but what happens when the agronomics are there and the economics still aren’t working out?

It’s always amazed me how numerous growers can farm in an area around each other with similar crop mixes and all have their own unique styles and approaches. It’s a blessing to be able to step back and attempt to look at a 20,000' perspective to try to see the intricacies of each operation. From this vantage point, we get to see both the good and the bad. As independent consultants, this gives us a unique perspective that is sometimes hard to articulate because these are all hardworking businessmen and businesswomen who are putting it all on the line.

So as agronomists, we stay in our lane. When we see some of the common pitfalls, we often bite our tongues. Many times, the hurdles to farm profitability are issues in the scalability in an operation. The common hazards are usually too much labor, too expensive land rent, lower productive soils, poor marketing plan and/or an excess of equipment for the acres and crop mix. All these pitfalls in this economic environment ultimately cause debt, and we know debt is the leading cause of a farm operation not being profitable.

How We Can Help
With these threats out of our control, how can we help our growers remain viable in a low commodity price environment? One of the ways we are addressing this issue is encouraging growers to research each farm’s yield history. When we examine crop budgets, with inputs already in line, the only way for that budget to show a profit is to increase yield or price. As simple as that sounds, many growers do not examine the yield history on a field-by-field basis. If a field’s yield history does not match or exceed the yield needed for at least breaking even on a budget, then we are simply not setting ourselves up for success. This goes for production potential of a farm and also the ability to properly insure your revenue.

Unfortunately, in many areas, farms are coming available this spring. This will be an opportunity for many operations to grow. If your clients will have growing operations, encourage them to avoid many of the pitfalls this year. And above all, even though times are tight, one area we don’t want our clients to cut is fundamental recommendations based on years of proven university data. These recommendations are foundational. They are not excessive and should provide a return on investment.

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