The Watch List – This Week
Middle East / Terrorist Attacks (Medium-Term)
The situation remains fluid and complex regarding the long-term implications for global economies in general and the energy sector in particular given Iran’s involvement. So far, U.S. gas prices have not spiked in response to the conflict (and are in fact 7% lower than a month ago.)
Public Company Earnings Season (Short-term)
Earnings continue this week from the banks and several U.S. major companies (including Johnson & Johnson).
Government Shutdown (Short-term)
The U.S. Congress has one month to avoid a government shut down November 17. The continued absence of a Speaker of the House complicates the picture
U.S. Economic Reports (Short-term)
Key reports including updates on: US retail spending, industrial production, initial jobless claims, and consumer sentiment
Key Ag Reports (Short-term)
In addition to normal weekly reports, USDA will provide various crop and protein specific outlooks, bioenergy statistics, and a cattle on feed report on Friday.
Upcoming Economic Reports & Catalysts
Monday, 10/16/2023
Grain Inspections, Outlooks (Oil Crops, Wheat, Other), Crop Progress, Empire State Manufacturing
Tuesday, 10/17/2023
US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, CoBank Economic Webinar 1pm EST
Wednesday, 10/18/2023
EIA Weekly Ethanol Production, Housing States, Building Permits, Fed Beige Book
Thursday, 10/19/2023
Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Economic Indicators, Weekly Grain Export Sales, U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
Friday, 10/20/2023
Cattle on Feed
Monday, 10/23/2023
Grain Inspections, Crop Progress
Tuesday, 10/24/2023
S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Flash PMI
Wednesday, 10/25/2023
EIA Weekly Ethanol Production, New Home Sales, Food Price and Food Security Outlooks
Thursday, 10/26/2023
Q3 GDP (2.1% est), Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Grain Export Sales
Friday, 10/27/2023
Personal Spending, PCE, Consumer Sentiment Livestock and Meat Domestic Data
Numbers of Interest
-13.1% Median YTD % change in spot prices for a basket of agricultural commodities we track (see slide 8)
3.2% Starting in January, the average monthly Social Security check for retired workers will rise 3.2%, or $59, to $1,906, the Social Security Administration said Thursday.
$12 billion Amount raised by Brookfield Asset Management (Toronto) for a new private equity fund presumably for distressed real estate among other asset classes.
+6.8% Since 1953, the S&P 500 has risen by 6.8% from mid-October to the end of December about 70% of the time. (Source: Sentiment Trader and Barron’s)
+5% Expected growth in S&P 500 earnings for 3Q23 excluding the Energy Sector.
29% The weighting of the seven (7) largest tech stocks in the S&P 500 index currently approximates 29%, although those names contribute only 17% to the overall earnings of the index.
Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank
