Is agriculture on the brink of an impending farm economy cliff? A panel of experts testified before the House Ag Committee this week about the severe challenges facing agriculture, all the way from the farmer to the supply chain.
The hearing on Capitol Hill comes as net farm income is forecast to decrease by $43 billion from 2023 to 2024, marking the most significant two-year decline in history. Meanwhile, production expenses are forecast to increase by $17 billion.
During the hearing the Chair of the House Ag Committee expressed his concerns about another farm financial crisis brewing.
“We are living through the largest two-year decline in farm income in history,” said Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-PA), House Agriculture Committee Chair during the hearing on Tuesday. “At the end of 2024, total farm sector debt will be the highest the U.S. has seen since at least 1970. 3:45 Most farmers and ranchers, including those here with us today, are likely to be worse off financially by years’ end.”
Dana Allen-Tully provided insightful comments and testimony during the hearing that captured the anxiety and price downturn in U.S. agriculture She and her family run a diversified farm in Eyota, Minnesota, producing dairy, corn, soybeans, and alfalfa. She also serves as President of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, representing 7,000 farm families across the state.
“Unless conditions change we’re facing a ‘perfect storm’ although I don’t think it will be fully understood until next year when farmers are unable to secure loans because they can’t cash flow,” said Allen-Tulley. “Plummeting crop prices, high production costs, doubling interest rates, natural disasters and tightening credit are just some of key culprits, as well as depleting working capital.”
She discussed the importance of passing a stronger farm bill this year, and shared the economic challenges producers are facing. We’re heading into a “perfect storm” of plummeting crop prices, high production costs, rising interest rates, natural disasters, and tightening credit, leading to depleted working capital, she stressed.
She noted recent analyses by the Federal Reserve Bank and the Farm Bureau highlight the brewing trouble, with John Deere’s layoffs as an early warning sign. An extension of the current farm bill won’t prevent economic issues, she informed, and a new farm bill, while essential, may not be timely enough. She said Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) recently emphasized the need for a disaster supplemental to address these challenges.
Alley-Tully cited USDA estimates projecting a drastic fall in farm income this year, marking the largest year-to-year drop ever recorded. From 2022 to 2024, net farm income will have fallen by 40%, explaining the declining farmer sentiment and increased mental health issues in rural America.
For farmers to break even this year, she detailed, national average corn yields must be 219 bushels per acre, and soybeans 56 bushels per acre — both significantly higher than the past 10-year average. Losses per acre are projected to be over $150, with even higher losses in Minnesota.
Her bottom line: Farm and ranch families need help. The Commodity Title and Crop Insurance provisions in the House farm bill, she concluded, provide a meaningful safety net, with a $4.10 PLC/ARC reference price and improved revenue thresholds. These measures are crucial, especially under current conditions, she said. While she supports these provisions in the next farm bill, she added it’s important to resume ERP payments for 2022 and consider a disaster supplemental for near-term assistance.
Other witnesses pointed out a host of economic issues are converging to lower net farm income by 25 percent from 2023 to 2024, which is depleting working capital and worsening credit conditions.
“With rising input costs and lower commodity prices farmers and ranchers have worked through the liquidity and working capital they built up over the past few years at a more rapid rate than anticipated and are now beginning to leverage equity through refinancing debt,” said
Tony Hotchkiss, Chairman, Ag and Rural Bankers Committee, American Bankers Association. “This has made ag bankers feel like they are looking over the cliff when it comes to the farm economy.”
Other witnesses urged policymakers to enhance risk management tools through a new farm bill to avert a crisis. And the Chairman agreed that is his goal.
“There are a few pundits that have taken the last few months to spread misinformation about this committee’s bipartisan product in an attempt to sow division. 5:00 Let me be clear; this is a farm bill that provides significant improvements for all producers,” Thompson said.
Thompson also said resources dedicated to the total farm safety net have declined 30 percent in the last 22 years with the commodity title seeing an 81-percent reduction. He says they want to change that with the new farm bill and he’s still open to trying get a bill passed in 2024 to avert a farm financial crisis.
Beyond the farm bill, Allen-Tully noted issues like trade deficits and flawed regulations impact farm families. She urged new trade agreements and better rules for biofuels to support domestic producers. “We face high stakes in farming, risking everything annually for thin margins. This discourages young people from farming, posing a problem for food security. Policies must reflect modern farming realities to address global hunger.”
