Ag retailers are heading into 2027 asking policymakers for one thing above all: certainty. On this episode of the Scoop Podcast, Ag Retailers Association (ARA) policy leaders Richard Gupton and Hunter Carpenter break down the issues shaping the fall agenda, just after ARA’s fall board meeting in St. Louis.
Gupton explains why ARA is fighting the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern rail merger, where the EPA’s WOTUS supplemental rulemaking stands, how the Senate is using the Congressional Review Act against California EV waivers, and why a December 4 pesticide registration deadline matters. Carpenter covers the Farm Bill’s path to the finish line, farmer bridge assistance, potential tariffs of up to 500% on Russian fertilizer under the new sanctions law, and what a competitive midterm election could mean for agriculture.
The pair also preview ARA’s Conference and Expo, Dec. 1–3 in Austin, Texas and the March 1–3, 2027, Winter Board Meeting and Fly-In.
Margy Eckelkamp: We are just coming off the ARA board gathering in St. Louis for its fall meeting. What would you like to share as far as the top conversation points?
Richard Gupton: We had around 70 members from all across the country participate last week, and they were highly engaged, which is important. There is a lot of uncertainty right now in our industry, and that was a big theme: ag retailers trying to help farmers navigate the unknowns, whether it’s transportation, labor supply, fertilizer, pesticides, a lot of changing regulations at the federal and state level, and a lot of ongoing litigation.
The issues we discussed at the board level, and in the policy breakout sessions Hunter led, were about hearing from retailers across the country and looking for policy direction going into 2027. We want reliable supply chains, a strong workforce, access to critical crop inputs, and a regulatory environment that provides predictability rather than surprises. Retailers can deal with issues like tariffs, but the key theme is some certainty, for retailers and for their farmer customers.
Margy Eckelkamp: ARA is a member of the coalition opposing the potential merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. What kind of update can you give us?
Richard Gupton: We’re part of the Stop the Rail Merger coalition. There’s a website with a lot of great information; just search “stop the rail merger.” The main thing is that transportation isn’t just a logistical issue. It’s a profitability issue for agriculture, for retailers and for their farmer customers. When products don’t move efficiently, costs go up throughout the supply chain.
We’re concerned because ag retail depends heavily on competitive, reliable rail service to move fertilizer in particular, and costs have only gone up for products like anhydrous ammonia. The law says the Surface Transportation Board is supposed to look at enhancing competition within the rail industry. We don’t see how this enhances competition, because the merged railroad would control just under 50% of all rail traffic. Union Pacific would like to ignore the law and say its competition is the trucking industry, but that’s just not the case. If the board follows the law and the facts, hopefully this will be rejected.
We’ve filed a notice of intent to participate. The deadline was September 30 for any organization or company that wanted to take part, and this will go into 2027 before any final decisions. The coalition is meeting with administration officials and lawmakers, and we’ve asked members for data and, if they’re willing, to file their own notices of intent. The concern is pushback and retaliation from the railroads, so ARA is there to be their unified voice. That’s the important part of being an ARA member: we can be the tip of the spear for our industry, and also the shield against retaliation for speaking up and opposing this merger.
Margy Eckelkamp: ARA is the advocacy voice for the ag retailer in many ways, including watching how things move through the timelines in D.C. What would you share about the WOTUS supplemental rulemaking?
Richard Gupton: We’re very appreciative of EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and his agency for dealing with this issue. The ongoing uncertainty is the theme with WOTUS: it has gone from the Obama administration to Trump, then Biden, and now the current Trump administration. We thought this would be put to bed with the Supreme Court’s Sackett decision, but to provide the clarity agriculture needed, EPA issued an initial round of rulemaking on what is covered and what is not.
This latest round is a supplemental notice that defines terms like perennial, relatively permanent and continuous surface connection to provide additional clarity. The public comment period ends October 9, and we plan to submit additional comments in support of those objectives and standards. We think this is a practical approach that provides the certainty needed. There is still litigation going on, but we hope these EPA steps will finally put the issue to rest and provide science-based regulations for our industry.
Margy Eckelkamp: Something I often get an update from you on is the California emissions and EV mandates. Where are we in this moment?
Richard Gupton: Last year the administration submitted a number of items to Congress rejecting those waivers, using the Congressional Review Act. Congress can override agency actions it disagrees with, and all you need is a bare majority of both the Senate and the House. There were a few votes last year to overturn these California EV mandates.
California is no friend of the oil and gas industry or of refineries, so if people are upset about high diesel and fuel prices, look to California’s attacks on that industry. These mandates have repercussions across the country, because a lot of states, like Virginia, where I live, hitch their wagon to some really misplaced laws. The Senate has now acted on a number of other Congressional Review Act measures on California EV waivers, covering off-road vehicles, light-duty trucks and even marine vehicles like ferries that move people and goods. They have a massive impact on costs for consumers and businesses.
We’re strongly supportive of these votes. I think the Senate will try to finish some before they leave to campaign for the elections. If people want lower diesel and fuel prices and fewer regulations, they need to contact their senators and House members and strongly support these measures. EPA also took action within the last week to revise the mileage-based restrictions and EV mandates from the Biden administration, which should help lower costs for industry and consumers.
Margy Eckelkamp: Diesel prices are top of mind for farmers and ag retailers, but so is having tools in the toolbox for crop protection. There is a deadline approaching for pesticide registration reviews. What are you watching?
Richard Gupton: Under the Pesticide Registration Improvement Act, there’s a deadline of December 4 of this year for some of these products to be reviewed and approved, or pending. Our supplier members have raised concerns about delays in the registration process and about making sure EPA has the flexibility to approve these products. Some products need to be approved and made known to the market sooner rather than later, because 2027 is right around the corner.
Once EPA acts, manufacturers and retailers need time to make sure they have the supply and the approved labels in place for growers, because those decisions are being made now. We’re engaged with EPA and have already sent letters on some products. We’re also asking Congress to extend the deadlines so EPA can continue reviewing these products. Production agriculture needs modern tools to help keep costs down, and older tools need to work with newer technologies, so growers have different modes of action to deal with weed resistance and other issues.
Margy Eckelkamp: The White House and President Trump’s officials have been engaging in the ag industry, and one trend is their support behind regenerative agriculture projects. How is ARA working with the administration on its regenerative ag efforts?
Richard Gupton: We’re supportive of sustainable ag, regenerative ag, whatever you want to call it, using newer technologies and having more tools in the toolbox for growers. We’re engaged on supporting new tools that need to be approved for farmers, but also on making sure the administration doesn’t throw out older technologies that are proven and safe. The science and the data show products like glyphosate are safe.
We’re making sure the regenerative ag effort isn’t hijacked to throw out proven tools. Besides producing food for the U.S. and the world, the goal is economically sustainable farmers, so you need all the tools available. We’re worried the effort could be hijacked by the MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) crowd as an in-road to ban proven technologies like glyphosate, where the science shows it can be used safely. We’re engaged with EPA, Health and Human Services and the White House to make sure they follow the law under the executive order they issued, and that the registration review process is done properly and in alignment with the regulations.
Margy Eckelkamp: The Farm Bill has been a slow-moving train, and we’re never sure when it will arrive at the station. Can you give us an update?
Hunter Carpenter: We’re closer to getting a new farm bill done than we’ve been in several years, but there’s still significant work to do. The House passed its full version earlier this year, and the Senate Ag Committee has now advanced its version. Both bills include important priorities for ag retailers and agriculture at large, including improvements to crop insurance and other risk management tools, and conservation and credit programs. The Senate version also includes year-round E15, which is an important development.
The next step is getting the House and Senate to resolve their differences and move a final bill through Congress. The current farm bill is operating under an extension, and while much of the funding remains available through the end of the year, producers need certainty about the programs they’ll be operating under. Our message is simple: Congress needs to finish the Farm Bill this year. We urge folks to take action in our Voter Voice campaign by going to the advocacy tab at ARADC.org and clicking “take action.” In a couple of clicks you can weigh in with your members of Congress.
Margy Eckelkamp: Farmer assistance payments have gotten a lot of attention given where we are in the economic cycle, and agriculture has been in a downturn. How has ARA engaged, and what are you watching?
Hunter Carpenter: Farmers continue to face significant economic pressure from low commodity prices, elevated input costs, trade uncertainty and higher energy costs. USDA has already provided substantial bridge assistance through the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, including $11 billion in one-time payments to eligible producers and an additional $1 billion for specialty crops. We need to keep monitoring whether more assistance is needed as we move toward the end of the year.
From an ag retail perspective, the financial health of our farmer customers, and ultimately the entire supply chain, is going to rely on additional payments. I think there is urgency to get something done as growers continue to see these significant economic pressures.
Margy Eckelkamp: You mentioned trade uncertainty and higher energy costs, and my mind runs to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Russian sanctions bill and its impact on fertilizer. What can you share?
Hunter Carpenter: We’re watching closely what implementation of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act will look like once the administration fully implements it. It was signed into law September 18, and it authorizes the president to impose additional duties of up to 500% on goods imported from Russia. The statute broadly uses the language “all goods,” so we can’t currently say fertilizer is exempt from potential tariffs.
That’s particularly important for nitrogen. Russia supplied approximately 35% of U.S. urea imports from January to July 2026. The fertilizer market has already experienced uncertainty over whether Russian-origin urea, UAN and ammonium nitrate will be subject to new duties, and we’re seeking clarification from the White House on how these products will be treated. The actual impact will depend on the tariff rate ultimately implemented and whether the administration establishes an exemption or waiver for fertilizer. ARA is watching this very closely. We’ve already had some discussions with the White House, and we’ll continue to monitor any significant disruption to imported nitrogen supplies, because it could have consequences for fertilizer availability and prices.
Margy Eckelkamp: People will be listening to this episode a month before the November elections. From an ARA perspective, what are you watching in the 2026 midterms and their potential impact on ag?
Hunter Carpenter: We’re in the final stretch of this election cycle. I promise you, the campaign commercials are coming to an end sometime soon, hopefully. There are competitive races across the country in both the House and Senate, and this will determine control of Congress for the next two years. Current race ratings indicate a highly competitive Senate environment and a House map that has moved toward a possible Democratic takeover in recent weeks.
For our members, the important thing is to know where candidates in your districts and states stand on issues that directly affect agriculture and ag retailers: energy policy, the electric vehicle mandates Richard talked about and their potential impact on ag equipment and transportation, climate and environmental policy, domestic energy production, and even farm policy if we don’t get a farm bill done. Energy costs deserve particular attention. Diesel is a fundamental operating cost for farmers and ag retailers, and it affects field operations, trucking, fertilizer application and virtually every part of the ag supply chain.
So when you talk to candidates, don’t just ask where they stand on agriculture generally. Ask what their energy, EV and climate policies are, and how they would affect the cost of producing a crop and of getting inputs to the farm. These elections will determine who makes these decisions in Washington for the next two years. We need members engaged and informed before they cast their ballots.
Margy Eckelkamp: One great way to get engaged is the 2027 Winter Board Meeting and Fly-In. Give us a preview.
Hunter Carpenter: It’s a great way for ARA members to put a constituent face on our industry. We expect a decent amount of turnover in Congress after the election, so it’s a chance to build relationships with new members and strengthen the ones we already have. We’ve begun in earnest to put together our 2027 policy priorities. We’ll solidify those in the coming months, working with our policy and government relations committees, and they could change depending on what Congress gets done later this year.
In 2026 we visited over 130 members of Congress and their staff during the fly-in, so let’s see if we can make it over 150 in 2027. This meeting is the Super Bowl for our policy team. It lets us show Congress how their constituents are engaged, and it’s of vital importance to our association. Block March 1–3, 2027, on your calendar and watch for registration later this year. We need everybody here, locked arms, singing from the same song sheet when they visit Congress to tell them why ag retail is so important.
Margy Eckelkamp: Another date to block is the annual ARA Conference and Expo, December 1–3 in Austin, Texas. What else would you share as a preview of this must-attend event for ag retail?
Richard Gupton: The 2026 ARA Conference and Expo is built around many of the topics we talked about today, the issues retailers are dealing with. The theme is “Amplifying Ag Retail: Tech, Trade and Transformation,” and those three words capture the forces reshaping the industry. We have a keynote speaker, the CEO of Idealist Innovation, on leading through disruption and change, and there has been a lot of both in our industry.
We’ll also hear from Julie Callahan, chief agricultural negotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, who will update attendees on agricultural trade negotiations and global market developments. AI is a big topic, so we’re going to move beyond the hype and focus on practical ways retailers can use AI, or I guess now we should call it superintelligence, to improve efficiency, address labor challenges and make better business decisions. Most importantly, we’ve built the program around retailer-to-retailer learning, including a panel with ag retailers sharing practical examples. These are peers facing the same challenges. The conference isn’t about talking about the future; it’s about giving retailers practical solutions they can take home and use immediately.
As we go into 2027, I encourage you to join our fly-in and be an engaged constituent with your lawmakers and federal agencies. We want to create certainty, and the only way to do that is to be an engaged stakeholder. That applies whether you’re talking about transportation, labor, fertilizer, the pesticide tools you need, trade or regulations, and how they affect you, your farmer customers and your rural communities. We need predictable policies and reliable supply chains that focus on producing food, feed, fiber and fuel, not only for the United States but for the world.
