The start of a new school year and the warm glow of Friday Night Lights signals the end of summer and the start of fall.
Those same indicators also portend – every four years, anyways – the impending presidential election season. And while presidential politics are certainly influential within the agriculture industry at large, our nation’s farmers currently have a much more pressing need in today’s faltering farm economy: passage of a new Farm Bill.
There hasn’t been a five-year Farm Bill since 2018, and that legislative extension is about to be sidelined by its own expiration.
When can farmers expect a new Farm Bill?
Back in June, Farm Journal asked its Ag Economists Monthly Monitor panel when they expected passage of a new Farm Bill. A combined 68% of the 70 experts surveyed indicated it could be passed in 2025, while just 19% said it could happen before the end of the year. Perhaps the worst-case scenario – nothing on the books until 2026 – is the prediction of 13% of those surveyed.
Farm leaders are beginning to grow impatient, pacing their respective sidelines like the hot seated, anxious head coach trying to rally the troops for that one last, potentially magical two-minute drill that would get this Farm Bill into the end zone. That would signify a big win for farmers, as well as the companies that help them get a quality crop into and out of the ground each year.
As of today, however, it feels like more of a Hail Mary than a one-yard Tush Push to get it over the goal line.
Making the Case
“We need a proper Farm Bill,” states Kurt Coffey, Case IH, vice president – North America. “We need to work beyond an extension and get a farm bill.
“Whether that happens later in the year, during the lame duck period – depending on who’s elected, or next year – the extension for funding that safety net goes through the end of 2024.” he adds. “So, whether we get an extension, the safety net side of crop insurance and the other things that come with it, we need to have that grassroots mobilization.”
Paul Neiffer – The Farm CPA – also strongly supports American agriculture getting the certainty that a new Farm Bill would provide. The agricultural economy is seemingly in a recession, and without an updated Farm Bill, farmers may struggle even more with net farm income expected to be substantially lower in 2025, and existing crop insurance no longer able to provide sufficient relief.
Then, if the upcoming election alters the political landscape in Congress – some are predicting control of the Senate and House could potentially flip-flop – Neiffer thinks that could cause further delay and legislative gridlock.
This whole deal could end up looking like yet another extension of the 2018 Farm Bill coming down on October 1, and then one more in 2025, which nobody really wants, Neiffer believes.
“It’s going to be a struggle,” Neiffer told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory recently. “You know, right now a lot of farmers are still okay for this year, in that we have a higher crop insurance price. But you know, when we go into next year and let’s say the projected price on corn is $3.50 and soybeans are $9. Crop insurance is not going to help us next year.”
Neiffer also shared a troubling development that he’s heard. USDA is reportedly asking some farmers to repay ERP (Emergency Relief Program) payments due to issues with crop insurance coverage on certain acres. This has created additional financial stress for farmers who received these payments based on previous calculations.
“Because once you fail to insure one acre – we’re talking one acre – but once you fail to insure one acre, they go back and recalculate your payment,” he explains. “Now instead of qualifying for the 10% loss coverage, you now must qualify for the 30% loss coverage. So therefore, you don’t qualify for any payment. You have got to pay the full amount back.
“In parts of the Midwest, that is a huge, huge deal,” Neiffer adds, noting he has heard this directly from a handful of farmers and crop insurance agents.
No matter your view of things: analyst, farmer, equipment manufacturer, or even ag retail business leader, we can all agree on one thing. America needs a new Farm Bill, sooner rather than later.
“There needs to be resolution,” Landus CEO Matt Carstens recently told CNBC’s The Exchange. “Farmers are anxious for that and getting it right, and ensuring that it happens is as important as anything right now.”
