The Ag Analyst’s Briefing: Week of March 20

On March 22, there will be the next Federal Interest Rate Decision; 75% probability of a quarter percentage point increase to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%
On March 22, there will be the next Federal Interest Rate Decision; 75% probability of a quarter percentage point increase to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%
(Farm Journal)

This week's Watch List:

Fed Policy

  • FOMC meets this week but, given banking turmoil, what will it do on interest rates? Expectation is hike of 25 bps

Russia-Ukraine

  • The Financial Times reported that “A deal allowing Ukraine to export grain to world markets by ship despite Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has been extended, the UN and the Ukrainian and Turkish governments said on Saturday.” (Source: Farmdoc)

WOTUS

  • The “Revised Definition of Waters of the United States” (WOTUS) wetlands regulation enters into effect on 20 March; however, the Supreme Court has yet to rule on Sackett v EPA – that ruling could make the WOTUS rule moot. 

Dutch Senate

  • Last week we were watching Dutch farmers’ protests potential impact on the regional elections; after the election the Farmer-Citizen party went from 0 to 15 seats with broad based support, and is now the largest party bloc in the Senate.

Numbers of Interest

+1.4%  Current estimate of GDP growth in the United States from the Business Roundtable survey.
$23 Billion   Tiger Global wrote down its venture fund by $23 billion or 33% during 2022; we expect other venture capital players to experience write-downs in 2023
0.4%  February retail sales rose just 0.4% vs. +3.2% in January
+4.6%    February Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.6% down from 5.7% (revised) in January
11.1%    Notwithstanding the turmoil following SVB, the NASDAQ index rose 4.4% last week (as money rotated out of financials into tech stocks), bringing the YTD price rise of that index to 11.1%.

Upcoming Events

March 21 – 22   Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
March 22   Federal Interest Rate Decision; 75% probability of a quarter percentage point increase to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%
March 23   Minnesota Cooperative Managers Meeting (Zuckerberg presenting virtually)
March 23   Chevron investor meeting. Watching for updates / commentary about renewable diesel.
March 24    St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard speech, S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Grains, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank.

 

Latest News

Where Did All the Corn Acres and Principal Crop Acres Go? The Two Biggest Questions from USDA's Big Prospective Plantings Report
Where Did All the Corn Acres and Principal Crop Acres Go? The Two Biggest Questions from USDA's Big Prospective Plantings Report

USDA says farmers intend to plant 90 million acres of corn this year, which was lower than what the trade expected leading into USDA's big Prospective Plantings report.

Vestaron and Simplot Announce Distribution Agreement
Vestaron and Simplot Announce Distribution Agreement

The distribution agreement focuses on Vestaron’s Spear Lep insecticide, which is a peptide-based control method meant to provide growers with a more environmentally friendly alternative to traditional chemicals.

The Scoop Podcast: How To Gear Up For Carbon And Sustainability Programs
The Scoop Podcast: How To Gear Up For Carbon And Sustainability Programs

Tim Hushon, sustainability and technology director at The Mill, details how sustainability factors into their ag retail business and how to partner with farmers on the technology adoption required.

Two Crop Protection Partners Divest Postharvest Solutions Company
Two Crop Protection Partners Divest Postharvest Solutions Company

Sumitomo Chemical and Valent BioSciences have announced Pace International will become part of AgroFresh Solutions.

The Untold Farmer Stories Of Ukraine: Q&A With Howard Buffett
The Untold Farmer Stories Of Ukraine: Q&A With Howard Buffett

Farmer and philanthropist Howard Buffett held a fireside chat during the 2024 Top Producer Summit to share his experiences visiting the front line of Ukraine over the past two years.

Get the Facts Straight on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
Get the Facts Straight on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Now that the mystery illness impacting some dairy herds has been revealed as the same strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza that has been impacting the U.S. poultry flock, pork producers are asking questions.