The Ag Analyst’s Briefing: Week of March 20
This week's Watch List:
Fed Policy
- FOMC meets this week but, given banking turmoil, what will it do on interest rates? Expectation is hike of 25 bps
Russia-Ukraine
- The Financial Times reported that “A deal allowing Ukraine to export grain to world markets by ship despite Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has been extended, the UN and the Ukrainian and Turkish governments said on Saturday.” (Source: Farmdoc)
WOTUS
- The “Revised Definition of Waters of the United States” (WOTUS) wetlands regulation enters into effect on 20 March; however, the Supreme Court has yet to rule on Sackett v EPA – that ruling could make the WOTUS rule moot.
Dutch Senate
- Last week we were watching Dutch farmers’ protests potential impact on the regional elections; after the election the Farmer-Citizen party went from 0 to 15 seats with broad based support, and is now the largest party bloc in the Senate.
Numbers of Interest
+1.4% Current estimate of GDP growth in the United States from the Business Roundtable survey.
$23 Billion Tiger Global wrote down its venture fund by $23 billion or 33% during 2022; we expect other venture capital players to experience write-downs in 2023
0.4% February retail sales rose just 0.4% vs. +3.2% in January
+4.6% February Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.6% down from 5.7% (revised) in January
11.1% Notwithstanding the turmoil following SVB, the NASDAQ index rose 4.4% last week (as money rotated out of financials into tech stocks), bringing the YTD price rise of that index to 11.1%.
Upcoming Events
March 21 – 22 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
March 22 Federal Interest Rate Decision; 75% probability of a quarter percentage point increase to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%
March 23 Minnesota Cooperative Managers Meeting (Zuckerberg presenting virtually)
March 23 Chevron investor meeting. Watching for updates / commentary about renewable diesel.
March 24 St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard speech, S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Grains, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank.