USDA’s early projections indicated nearly 5 million fewer acres of corn in the U.S. this year and 4 million more acres of soybeans.
However, with fertilizer prices spiking and questions about supplies, how much will that change farmers’ plans and this spring’s acreage mix?
Northwest Corn Belt Farmers Planning on More Corn
In 2025, Northwest Corn Belt farmers planted 2.4 million more acres of corn.
Chris Kolstoe, director of agronomy operations with CHS, says early seed sales in North Dakota are leaning that way again.
“It feels like our corn acres are moving up,” Kolstoe says. “You know, just based on sales of bags of corn going into the year.”
Corn Offers Better Chance for Profitability
The shift is driven by a better chance for profit. Even though the corn-soybean ratio favors soybeans, Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag Risk Management in Fargo, N.D., says farmers can “bushel up” with corn.
“I think we’re going to see an increase in corn acres,” Martinson says. “I mean, just everybody was so impressed with their corn yields last year and with the changes with the varieties being so much better. I just look for corn to kind of continue to be king up here.”
Scott Johnson, who farms near Manville, N.D., says while he is sticking with his normal rotation on most of his farm, his cousin tiled 200 acres of land last fall. This locked in their plans.
“So, he’s putting the corn on it. We’ve determined we’re gonna do it just because of the tile. So, whatever happens, it’s already been planned for, I guess,” Johnson says.
Minnesota Farmers Planting More Corn
Early indications of increased corn acreage are also true in Minnesota, according to farmer Kurt Aakre.
“Actually, we added some corn,” Aakre says. “We added another 20% on the corn end and are cutting back on some wheat.”
Aakre says they applied most of their fertilizer last fall. Even though it cost more, corn still penciled out better than soybeans.
“Corn has been the most profitable for us for the last several years, and we’re going to continue with that,” he says.
South Dakota Farmers Planning on More Corn
South Dakota saw a record 6.9 million acres of corn planted last year.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing farms near Britton, S.D. He confirms farmers could seed even more this year.
“It’s corn that has the higher yield potential,” Bosse says. “I know like on my farm anyway, soybeans, we just can’t get the big monster yields we’d like. So, I know we’re going to push the corn envelope again, too.”
Will Higher Fertilizer Prices Change Plans?
The one caveat is those plans were made before the Iran war spiked fertilizer prices. Kolstoe says that may cause some acreage shifts.
“If some plans were to raise corn and maybe don’t have some of the fertilizer bought yet, or some of those acres are up in the air, they could flip back to soybeans,” Kolstoe says.
With the surge in fertilizer costs, Scott Johnson says he’s glad he was proactive.
“We booked a bunch in December year-end and then we booked some more in January and February as prices were kind of a little bit better,” Johnson says. “Now they’re—I know they’re higher than when we booked, so I feel pretty good about our position.”
Fertilizer Supplies in Question
The price of fertilizer is only part of the problem. With slow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, some products like urea may be difficult to source from the Middle East in time for planting.
Rick Dusek, executive vice president with CHS, says they have a good share of product in place, but not all.
“So, there is a gap,” Dusek says. “Fortunately, it happened towards the end of the season, not at the beginning. So, I think we’re in pretty good shape, but it’s not all here.”
An estimated 10% to 15% of farmers in the North haven’t bought spring supplies. If they cannot get fertilizer in time, it could change acreage plans, according to Grand Forks farmer Paul Sproule.
“If they can’t, then they’ll probably go to crops that don’t use a lot of fertilizer, like soybeans or edible beans,” Sproule says.
Northern States Mostly Likely to Shift
In a normal year, Northern states have the most flexibility in acreage. This year, they are again the most likely to swing acres, according to Bosse.
“In the I-states, no. I think they’ll stick to their acres plan,” Bosse says. “A lot of that fertilizer is already down or it’s booked. But it can shift acres in North Dakota. And I think we’re finding out more and more it’s these fringe areas that really matter, isn’t it? North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota. So, I think you can still change acres 3 million, 4 million easily. Corn and soybeans back and forth.”
China Deal Could Also Change Acreage
Bosse says adding to the uncertainty, if China strikes a trade deal with soybean purchases in early April, beans could rally. This could attract some acres back before the planters roll in the North.
“The number one thing is price,” Bosse says. “So that way, yes, it is on China. I mean, if we get a deal done and we’re, you know, $11 plus cash, guys will plant more beans.”
Sunflowers and Canola Also Fight for Acres
The huge rally in vegetable oil markets, like soybean oil, is driven by favorable biofuels policy. This is making similar oil crops more attractive this year, Martinson says.
“Sunflowers could add, you know, somewhere around that half a million to 3/4 of a million acres,” he notes.
Aakre says he’s also looking at canola. “We’re going to add some canola this year, which looks potentially profitable.”
Wheat the Loser
Martinson says the loser in the acreage battle may be spring wheat.
“I think we could possibly see close to a, you know, anywhere from a 7% to 10% drop in wheat acres,” Martinson says. “I think it’s just because guys are just tired of the quality.”
Few Crops Show Any Profit
Unfortunately, as farmers start a new season, they’re still struggling to find the best chance for profit.
“No matter what grain or what commodity you put into your business plan for planting, using average yields in our cost environment here, you don’t make money on the one crop,” Paul Sproule explains.
Mother Nature Has a Say
Weather will also play a huge role in the acreage mix. This has been another fairly open winter, except in the far North. Kolstoe says the lack of snow cover could lead to an early spring.
As with any year, Johnson says Mother Nature will have the final say on when and what crops get planted.
“If we’re in early, there’s a lot of corn going in,” Johnson says. “If not, a lot could switch to soybeans. So, a lot of it would be weather—just weather determined.”
