A vessel carrying approximately 54,000 metric tons of Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) has arrived at the Port of New Orleans, marking the return of Moroccan phosphate fertilizer to the U.S. market following temporary relief from countervailing duties (CVD), OCP North America announced.
StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville says the significance is straightforward: “Because we haven’t seen Morocco since 2021.” He adds the supply change could help phosphate fertilizer economics, though not immediately to “normal” levels.
“I’m hoping we’ll start see a little bit of price alleviation. I don’t think we’re going anything close to normal, but at this point, we’ll take whatever dollars we can get,” Linville says.
Fertilizer demand outlook: farmers looking for break-even
Linville said financial pressure is driving fertilizer decision-making heading into fall.
“Every farmer you talk to, financially, they’re hurting. We see it in the lack of high grain prices. We see it in the high input prices. And it’s not just fertilizer—it’s seed, it’s chemical, it’s equipment, it’s land, it’s diesel fuel. Everything top to bottom is high. Except for the grain price,” he says.
He said many producers are not trying to maximize profitability so much as they are trying to protect cash flow.
“And that brings many farmers to make decisions about how to trim, reduce, or cut fertilizer,” he says. “Phosphate’s a great way. You could skip the application, you could reduce the application,” he says.
But, he warns that phosphate cuts must be handled carefully from an agronomic standpoint, not an emotional one.
Linville expects a sharp pullback in phosphate demand as farmers adjust plans.
“As we start moving in towards the fall season, my full expectation is that demand is going to be down at least 50%.”
He points to the current economics driving the third highest phosphate to corn ratio we have ever seen.
Why weaker demand may not quickly lower prices
While demand destruction usually pushes prices lower, Linville argues that this market is behaving differently due to global supply constraints. The supply side still isn’t adjusting in a way that guarantees faster price relief.
“The S&D always needs to find balance. The supply is sitting there begging demand to fall because it does not have enough to go around,” he says.
The policy backdrop and OCP’s next step
OCP said the Moroccan shipment is intended to support fertilizer availability for U.S. growers ahead of the fall application season. The company also said it engaged with the Department of Commerce and other U.S. authorities following the administration’s June 29 announcement to clarify implementation requirements and ensure compliance before shipments began.
OCP North America CEO Kevin Kimm said in a company news release, “This shipment reflects our commitment to supply the U.S. market,” adding that “The temporary relief has enabled Moroccan phosphate fertilizer to return to the U.S. market. We are now focused on helping supplement available supply and ensuring American farmers have access to the fertilizer they need, when they need it.”
Global constraints tightening fertilizer flows
Linville argued the larger phosphate market is locked in a competitive price environment, where producers face logistics and export constraints in addition to demand uncertainty.
“If we were in a normal market, right now prices should be just careening off a cliff,” he says, explaining that standard price behavior may be delayed when key exporting nations remain restrained. The current market’s “price war” is driven by a small set of global suppliers–phosphate’s largest five are China, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.
“Look at China—they’re not exporting. They exported 10 million tons of DAP and MAP in 2021. So far, this year, I think it’s 183,000 tons.” he says
Linville also points to logistics constraints affecting Saudi Arabian supply, noting “The Strait of Hormuz is half the world’s tradable supply. Just right off the bat, just half of the world’s tradable supply is gone.”
He adds Russia’s export ban further tightens availability: “Russia has banned export. That’s another 17%, so right now, two-thirds—literally, 2 out of every 3 tons around the world is missing.”
