The hardest thing to grow on an American farm right now isn’t corn or soybeans — it’s a profit margin. Between competition from Brazil, Argentina and other countries and the unpredictable nature of trade deals, many U.S. growers are finding survival, much less profitability, an uphill climb in 2026.
According to a recent Farm Journal poll, more than 86% of corn and soybean farmers are worried about global competition from countries such as Brazil and Argentina. Economists say that anxiety is well-founded.
“What’s making this particular period in time rather acute is it’s being accompanied by tight financial margins globally, but especially here in the United States,” says Ben Brown, University of Missouri agricultural economist.
South America Finally Hits A Wall
For years, Brazil has expanded its agricultural footprint at a fast clip, transforming into a global powerhouse for soybeans, corn and cotton. This rapid growth fundamentally changed the global game, flooding the market and driving intense competition.
However, Brazil’s rapid rise is finally starting to slow. Economists note that South American growers are beginning to hit the exact same financial brick wall as U.S. farmers: skyrocketing expenses and tight margins.
“Where we’ve seen kind of 4%-ish acreage growth the past multiple years, we’re actually seeing that slow this year,” says Grant Gardner, an agricultural economist at the University of Kentucky. Gardner notes that international competitors are dealing with many of the same headaches as U.S. growers regarding input prices, especially for nitrogen fertilizer.
Even so, economists are split on just how much Brazil’s momentum will actually cool. Farm Journal regularly reaches out to a vetted list of 80 ag economists from across the industry through the Ag Economists Monthly Monitor (AEMM). Of the 17 economists who responded to the May survey, six believe Brazil’s soybean expansion will drop significantly because clearing and preparing new land has simply become too expensive. Conversely, another third believe that favorable currency exchange rates will offset those costs and keep their expansion moving at its usual pace.
Regardless of how fast Brazil expands, the good news for American growers is that the U.S. retains a massive structural safety net when times get tough.
“Long-term, if you’re in the U.S., we are set up better,” Gardner says. “If we think about what the Risk Management Agency does with crop insurance, and our farm programs, we have some income-smoothing abilities in the United States that they simply don’t get in Brazil.”
Hidden Costs And A Window of Opportunity
While Brazil can grow crops more cheaply overall due to lower land and labor costs, South American farmers suffer from distinct structural vulnerabilities: high interest rates and a dependency on imported fertilizer.
“They have a lower cost structure, but it’s because of land and labor. It’s not because of the input costs,” Brown explains. “The way their soils are structured, they have to buy a lot of fertilizer, and they have to import a lot of that fertilizer from the global market.”
When high global interest rates are tacked onto those massive fertilizer bills, the financial strain multiplies. Brown believes this mounting economic pressure will finally catch up to Brazilian farmers by next winter, causing a meaningful drop in their production that could open a vital window of opportunity for U.S. exports.
“We could start to see the market respond with a little higher prices at the back end of 2026. Certainly, by the time the calendar turns to 2027, those might be some good opportunities to move some old-crop grain and oilseeds,” Brown anticipates.
The $29 Billion Question
While U.S. growers look for an edge in South America’s vulnerabilities, they are also trying to parse what to make of China’s recent promise to buy $29 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods (excluding soybeans). While it sounds like a victory on paper, many economists are skeptical.
In the May AEMM survey, 60% of economists called the promise “moderately positive,” viewing it as a minor safety net for prices rather than a true game-changer. One-third saw it as completely neutral, and notably, not a single economist categorized the deal as highly positive.
“Purchase commitments are very hard to measure,” Brown says. “They don’t follow the traditional economic logic of buying behavior of consumers — in this case, the consumer being a whole country.”
Other economists noted that while markets have reacted favorably to the headline, history suggests caution.
“It is perceived by the market as positive. I am somewhat skeptical of how long it will stick, though. It wouldn’t be the first time either the U.S. or China shifted after making a decision,” replied one economist in the Monthly Monitor.
History shows such trade deals are rarely straightforward; both sides have a habit of shifting timelines, renegotiating data sets, or altering terms after agreements are signed. Furthermore, without soybeans on the table, it will be logistically and physically difficult for China to find $29 billion worth of other U.S. crops to buy.
“When they bought large sums of non-soybean values and volumes of product from us previously, it was a lot of corn and a lot of beef, and right now both categories are a little bit hard to justify,” Brown says. “There’s not great signals that would fully support that they need our corn. The beef equation is a little bit more complex, because we don’t really have the beef to send them.”
Even under the most optimistic scenario, economists view the agreement as supportive rather than transformational. Gardner says while he is concerned about what China will ultimately be willing to buy, he has “less skepticism” toward the agreement after Chinese leadership came back to the table last November, and again this January and February, to purchase soybeans.
“So, I think they are going to come to the table. The question is, how long can we keep them there?” he asks.
Looking Ahead: Acreage And Inputs
As macro-economic factors play out on the global stage, American farmers will need to make tough, localized decisions regarding their crop mixes for 2026-27. Brown says corn will continue to lead the crop mix in total U.S. acres this year (2026), though there will be “a few more” soybean acres planted.
“Now, ‘few’ is a subjective term, right? It could be 1-million or 2-million acre shifts,” Brown notes. “I still think that places more corn acres in the United States relative to soybeans, but I do think that we move back closer to a narrower gap between the two.”
Gardner offers a similar perspective for his region. He expects 2026 corn acres to slip from earlier projections, with more soybeans showing up in the Mid-South and South, while some marginal ground may be left completely idle. He has heard reports of some producers skipping shaded field edges and wet areas. “While small individually, these areas can add up nationally,” Gardner says.
Input management will be the defining factor for profitability. Farms that have historically over-applied fertilizer may be able to trim application rates without much yield loss, Gardner adds, but those already operating at “just enough” risk giving up bushels if they cut back. Ultimately, what happens after 2026 largely depends on where nitrogen prices go next.
“That’s a tough call. It’s really difficult at this point to make projections for 2027,” he notes.
Economists weighing in on the May Monthly Monitor are similarly split on how farmers will adapt to a prolonged high-cost environment into 2027, as indicated by their feedback: 25% say more farmers will switch from corn and wheat to crops with “lower costs” to produce; another 25% also predict there will be regional shifts to less planting of both crops.
Seize Small Economic Windows
Despite the tough economic environment, Gardner says he has actually grown more optimistic since the winter. Because grain prices have ticked up slightly, he hopes a true break-even point is within reach for more growers.
The biggest piece of advice he offers for farmers navigating this volatile environment? Don’t get distracted by the constant noise on social media, and don’t wait for prices to hit absolute peak highs before locking in sales.
“Commodity prices have pretty much moved with [fertilizer], and so I think that’s a positive,” Gardner says. “From the corn and soybean perspective, you’re not at a bad price right now. That’s exactly when you want to lock some in — before the market shows you whether its next move is up or down.”
