The 2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up in Rochester, Minn., Thursday night with a clear message from scouts: This year’s corn crop is good — maybe even excellent — but it’s not a repeat of last year’s record run.
Soybeans, however, still have a real chance to deliver a new national record yield.
After four days and 1,569 field samples across seven states, Western Tour Leader Chip Flory, Eastern Tour Leader Lane Akre and crop tour data consultant Emily Carolan say the numbers forced them to recalibrate corn expectations for the Corn Belt, even as parts of Minnesota and Iowa showed impressive strength.
“Everything is down from a year ago,” Flory says, looking over the week’s tally. “Except for Minnesota soybean pod counts — those are up 0.8%. Everything else is down from last year.”
Pro Farmer Pegs Corn 7.5 Bu. Below USDA Projection
After scouts spent a week surveying seven major corn-producing states in the Midwest, Pro Farmer released its national expectations, putting the 2026 crop at an average of 173.2 bu. per acre — 7.5 bushels below USDA’s 180.7 bu. projection released earlier this month.
The Pro Farmer number uses Crop Tour data but combines it with a host of other factors to come up with its national yield forecast.
With that perspective in play, here is how the numbers compare between the Pro Farmer and USDA estimates:
Pro Farmer Corn Average Estimate: 15.344 billion bu.; Average yield of 173.2 bu. per acre
(Yield Estimate Ranges: +/-1% = 15.498 billion bu. to 15.191 billion bu.; 175.0 bu. to 171.5 bu. per acre)
USDA Corn Estimate: 16.013 billion bu.; 180.7 bu. per acre avg.
Objective Field Data Tells Different Story Than Farmer Surveys
Akre says the discrepancy between USDA and Pro Farmer numbers has to do with the quality of the data.
"[USDA is] surveying farmers who are looking at the field, so they have a very good idea, but there’s no objective data in there,” Akre says. “When you get out there and you start counting the ears and measuring the grain, the crop’s just not where it needs to be.”
Akre adds that he anticipates that when USDA prepares its September report, its numbers will change to reflect the impact of weather stress on the crop.
“I think they’ll be seeing the same thing that we saw this past week,” Akre predicts.
Cold Snap and Wet June Knocked Wind Out of Crop
Carolan and Flory repeatedly came back to a common storyline scouts found throughout the tour: a cold snap after corn emergence, followed by one of the wettest Junes on record, knocked the wind out of this crop.
Even so, Flory says 2026 should not be confused with a poor year — instead, he frames what he saw in fields as a high-performing crop that only looks soft when stacked against 2025.
“What we’re looking at this year are not bad crops,” he says. “It is a reminder of just how good those crops were in 2025.”
Carolan adds that the early-season weather set the stage for yield drag in the heart of corn country.
“The fact that it got cold for an extended period of time, just after the crop emerged… that took the vigor out of the seedlings,” she notes. “It advanced some seedling diseases, and it probably cut some stands. It did. It absolutely did.”
Saturated Soils During Critical Development Window Cut Kernel Rows
Then came June and rainfall that just seemed to keep on coming.
“You throw, especially in eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, 5, 6, 7, 10 inches of rain at it in the middle of June when we are developing kernel rows around,” Carolan says. “The corn plant is thinking at that time, saying, ‘How many kernel rows do I want to have around. How many kernel-rows-long do I want?’ And then it’s saturated, and the oxygen is just cut off. The crop can’t think.”
Ear Counts and Grain Length Both Suffered
The result wasn’t just fewer ears — it was shorter ears, less grain length. That issue was an ongoing yield robber that showed up repeatedly across multiple states.
“Ear counts were a problem in Ohio and Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Iowa, west-central Iowa,” Flory says. “They were not so much a problem in Illinois. We were down one ear from a year ago — it was all about the grain length there.”
In Iowa, Carolan adds, both ear counts and grain length slipped.
“Grain length for Iowa corn versus last year came in down 3.27%, whereas ear count was down 0.74%,” she says. “I think it just shows that, yeah, the early season side of it definitely caused the problem.”
Across the tour, she kept seeing full ears that simply weren’t as long.
“I’ve got how many pictures of full ears, right, filled out all the way to the tip,” Carolan says. “But they were like, ‘We just can’t get over an 8-inch average. We just can’t get it.’ It wasn’t just because of tipback. It was because of ear development and the stress that that crop felt early in the year.”
Test Weight Concerns Add to Yield Worries
Akre tied that to another concern he saw repeatedly this week: lower test weights, after two years when heavy grain had helped offset issues elsewhere.
“Test weight has carried yields the last two years,” he contends. “Up about 5% in 2024, up another 5% in 2025, and if we’re not going to be able to get those kind of test weights with the lower ear counts that we’re seeing, with the smaller ears that we’re seeing, it’s going to have a really big impact on the crop.”
‘Don’t Sleep on Beans’ — Record Soybean Yield Possible
Despite the yield drag found in corn, Flory says U.S. soybean potential is a different story altogether. If Mother Nature cooperates, farmers could take a record crop to bins this fall.
“I just want to say this: don’t sleep on beans,” he says.
“The bean crop’s got some moisture to go ahead and finish,” he adds, “and there’s an adequate pod count out there. Don’t sleep on the beans.”
Pro Farmer places the soybean yield average at 53.3 bu. per acre, with a total crop size of 4.572 billion bushels. If realized, that soybean yield would establish a new national record.
Pro Farmer Soybean Estimate (+-2%): 4.481 to 4.664 billion bu.; 52.2 to 54.4 bu. per acre
USDA’s August estimate for the national soybean yield average is slightly below what Pro Farmer found in fields this week. USDA expects soybeans to average 52.7 bushels per acre, with a total crop of 4.52 billion bushels.
Tour Leaders Call 2026 a ‘Top Three’ for Discovery
For Flory, who has led or participated in the tour since 1993, the 2026 tour stands out not for record yields but for what it revealed about how this year’s corn crop responds to cold stress, saturated soils and excess nitrogen loss.
“This one’s a top three. There’s no question about it. Just what we learned, the discovery process that happened this week, I think, was pretty incredible,” he notes.
Here’s a brief summary of the state findings for each day of the tour and links to complete articles showcasing the results:
Minnesota And Iowa Add More Uncertainty to the 2026 Corn Yield Outlook
Day 4 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found a crop with plenty of potential — and plenty of hidden gaps. Fewer ears, shorter grain length and early-season stress are showing up in fields in parts of both states, complicating the yield picture.
‘Underwhelming’ Crops in Illinois While Iowa Corn Holds Up, and Disease Builds in Soybeans
Day 3 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour reveals low ear counts dragging down rain-weary Illinois fields, while Western Iowa corn flashes standout potential despite rising SDS and brown stem rot in soybeans.
Saturated Indiana Reveals Immature Corn and Uneven Beans, As Dryland Drags Nebraska Yields
Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour reveals surprisingly resilient fields on the Eastern leg, while a late-summer moisture deficit leaves dryland crops on the Western leg lagging behind 2025 yields.
Dry Fields Stifle South Dakota Corn Yields While Ohio Battles Excess Water
Day 1 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour highlights a deeply divided Corn Belt. Scouts find drought-damaged corn but surprisingly resilient soybeans in the West, while the East battles mud and highly uneven maturity.
