The 2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour is underway, and day one revealed a classic tale of two extremes. While scouts on the eastern leg in Ohio were sinking ankle-deep in mud trying to sample waterlogged, late-planted crops, scouts on the western leg in South Dakota battled drought-stressed cornfields showing early shutdown,
In South Dakota, AgriTalk host and team lead Chip Flory says barren stalks, tip-back and scattered disease pressure were taking a toll on corn yield potential. Meanwhile, soybeans are proving more resilient in the state. Recent rains and late-set pods are giving some fields a chance to add bushels, although August moisture needs remain critical.
USDA’s August 12 forecast puts South Dakota corn at 151 bu. per acre in 2026, down 20 bu. from 171 in 2025, while soybeans are forecast at 41 bu. per acre, down 6 bu. from 47 in 2025.
South Dakota Corn Yields: Maturity Concerns & Heat Impact
Flory reported a mix of corn yield checks as he made his way across southern portions of the state on Monday. Initial stops looked solid, and he calculated yields of 189 bu. and 194 bu. per acre. But results dropped as scouts covered more ground and pushed into the afternoon.
Flory attributes planting timing, cold temperatures early in the season and too much heat during pollination as having played important roles this season.
“The maturity on the corn crop in South Dakota is concerning,” he says. “I like to see it in the dough stage this time of year because that means it still has potential. But what I saw was at very late dough and moving into dent.”
Corn Disease Pressure: Northern Corn Leaf Blight & Rust
Disease pressure, which was a big part of the story for the western leg of Pro Farmer Crop Tour in 2025, is present but not nearly at the levels as last year. Scout Tim Gregerson reported seeing a smattering of southern rust, gray leaf spot and northern corn leaf blight in South Dakota fields he checked.
Northern corn leaf blight was noteworthy, as Gregerson points out, “you can’t treat [it] with a fungicide.”
“The disease pressure is nowhere near the pressure we saw last year,” he says. “Still, the corn was pretty clean here a month ago, and it’s not that clean today.”
South Dakota Soybean Outlook: Higher Pod Counts Boost Potential
Soybeans are providing a more encouraging story in South Dakota. Flory anticipated pod counts to be substantially below last year’s unusually high numbers; instead, counts were surprisingly strong.
“The first field I went into was 1,550 pods. The next one was like 1,150,” Flory says, noting the soybean checks are done in a 3-by-3-foot square.
Recent rains this month are helping, and new pods at the top of plants could provide additional yield.
“Maybe most important, what we’re seeing is you look at the top node, and you get that cluster of six, seven pods right up there at the top,” Flory says. “Those have been added within the last week, maybe 10 days, and they’ve got moisture.”
He calls those new pods “the icing on the cake kind of thing in a good yield year.”
Stops 6-10 in southeast South Dakota on #pftour26
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 17, 2026
Average corn yield 150 bu/acre vs 172 on these same five stops last year. Evidence of pollination issues. Ears are short. Soil is dry.
Soybean pod counts average 1087 in a 3'x3' plot vs 1358 thru this stretch in 2025. pic.twitter.com/Uw0gp7TFkO
Crop scout Karen Braun says she saw good potential for soybeans but not at the level Flory reports. Her observations on Monday indicate pod counts were about 9% below last year. South Dakota averaged 47 bu. per acre of soybeans last year, and USDA currently projects this year’s crop at about 6 bu. lower.
Braun, Zaner chief market analyst, says the USDA projection “seems fairly reasonable,” but she emphasizes it’s early and there’s plenty of season yet to go.
“Bean yields in August … can really swing either way because we’re still waiting on the rain,” she told Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook on Monday morning.
Braun says she believes rain timing could matter more to the South Dakota crop than total rainfall.
“Even a small rainfall can be enough to kind of keep the crops going and give them life,” Braun says, particularly during pod fill.
South Dakota Crop Conditions: Northern Moisture vs. Southern Drought
AgMarket.net field agronomist and farmer Cory Bratland says he views the South Dakota’s corn and soybeans this year as a “tale of the haves and the have-nots.”
Bratland farms about 110 miles northwest of Sioux Falls — north of the primary Crop Tour corridor. His area has received more early-season rain and currently looks considerably better than the southern regions.
“We’re actually sitting pretty well,” he says. “A little bit too much rain early on,” but adequate moisture has generally held.
“Out my back door here, our soybean yields I think are maybe going to be a little bit better than last year,” he adds.
Conditions change, he says, further south and southeast, where the tour is sampling drier areas.
“When you get down where the crop tour is taking place … yes, they are definitely drier,” he says. “Most of the guys I’ve been talking to there don’t expect quite as good as a crop yield on either corn and soybeans.”
Recent rains are helping stabilize areas hit by what Bratland describes as “severe, severe drought” and “flash-drought” conditions.
“If anything, I would say some of the recent rains in that quadrant [Pro Farmer] is checking… will definitely help stabilize the crop, add maybe add a little more test weight to the crop,” he says. “The forecast looks good for us. I think we’re going to stabilize, maybe even see a slight uptick.”
Ohio & Indiana Crop Tour Results: Flooding & Muddy Fields
Lane Akre and Kyle Wendland covered the eastern leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour Monday, with Akre sampling fields across Ohio and Wendland traveling from north-central Ohio and then into Indiana.
What they found was a crop shaped by a stop-and-start growing season: standing water, muddy fields, uneven maturity and plenty of questions about how much yield potential remains.
“The key is just really going to be how the crop survives the next week,” says Akre, Pro Farmer economist and team lead for the eastern leg of the tour.
Ohio Corn Maturity: Late Planting & Excess Rain Delays
Ohio’s planting season came in fits and starts, and that difference is showing up now in crop maturity.
Akre described Ohio as a “tale of two crops.” Corn planted during the first window is noticeably farther along. Then persistent rain shut down fieldwork before conditions opened up enough for another planting push. That gap is obvious in the fields. Some corn samples were only at the blister stage. One field Akre checked was barely past pollination.
“There’s still a long way for a lot of the corn crop to go in Ohio,” he says.
For late-planted corn, the calendar is now becoming part of the yield equation. Akre says the crop needs time to move through grain fill, and weather between now and maturity will determine how much of that potential makes it to harvest.
“All the corn stops were muddy,” he adds. “Sometimes we were ankle-deep in mud.”
Ohio & Indiana Soybean Conditions: Pod Counts in Wet Soil
Soybeans generally appeared to be handling the moisture better.
“The beans were able to soak up the water a little bit more,” Akre says. “It wasn’t quite as muddy in the bean fields, and that was pretty much across the route.”
Wendland saw much the same pattern, and it only worsened as he crossed into Indiana. In one low-lying corn field, residue was caught on the ear shanks — evidence that water had risen nearly to ear level.
“It didn’t submerse the ear, but it was right up there, which was crazy to see,” Wendland says.
Long-Term Water Damage: Kernel Abort & Nitrogen Leaching
The bigger concern might be what hasn’t shown up yet.
“My biggest question—and I don’t know who has the answer for it—[is] what’s the long-term consequence?” Wendland says. “With all this water, when are you going to start being able to see signs of stress or aborting kernels, nitrogen leaching? To me, it’s just not really showing up yet.”
Akre did see some signs that the wet conditions are already affecting nutrient availability. Lower leaves were flagging in some fields, which he attributed at least in part to nitrogen deficiency.
“That is largely due to nitrogen deficiency and some of that, with some of the excessive wetness and the soil’s inability to hold some of that nitrogen,” he says.
Eastern Corn Belt Crop Diseases: Northern Leaf Blight & Blight Risks
Disease pressure wasn’t overwhelming Monday, but both scouts found enough to warrant continued attention.
Akre saw some bacterial leaf blight in Ohio. Wendland found more field-to-field variation, with northern corn leaf blight showing up more often than tar spot or common rust.
“It seems like it’s a different disease,” Wendland says. “It seemed like I was seeing more northern leaf blight than tar spot or common rust.”
2026 USDA Yield Estimates vs. Pro Farmer Crop Tour Data
USDA’s Aug. 12 forecast calls for Ohio corn to average 183 bu. per acre in 2026, down just 2 bu. from 2025.
Akre’s route came in lighter than that, but he doesn’t think the USDA number is necessarily out of reach.
“I think they could be close,” he says. “We were short of where I think they need to be, but I think we were on one of the poorer routes in Ohio.”
The soybean outlook is more favorable. USDA projects Ohio soybeans at 58 bu. per acre, up 5 bu., or 9.4%, from last year’s 53-bu. average.
Wendland, who has 18 years of Crop Tour experience, says Monday’s conditions were unusual even by Ohio standards.
“I’ve seen cracks in Ohio in the soil lots more than I’ve ever stepped in a wet field, let alone [a] field of standing water, which was very common today,” he says.
Markets Offer a Silver Lining
One good message Akre shares is that the market has improved and is working in farmers’ favor currently. “I’m hoping we can take advantage of it,” he says.
This year, Farm Journal takes you deeper into the Pro Farmer Crop Tour than ever before with live coverage Monday through Thursday from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. CST. Follow along with scouts in the fields, market analysis and more.
