The core of the Corn Belt is forecast to see above normal temperatures and below normal rain next week, and it could hit as the crop is in prime pollination.
The extreme heat in June that blanketed the Mid-South and South pushed some of the U.S. corn crop to mature quickly. The ridge that created the heat didn’t disappear. Instead, it’s been shifting over the past month. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey has been watching the ridge of high pressure since June, not only to see where it shifts, but also its intensity.
“As you remember, 50% of U.S. corn was planted in a two-week period in May, and almost two-thirds of the corn was planted in a three-week period,” says Rippey. “So, a lot of that corn went in all at once, especially in the Midwest.”
In June, Rippey said the timing and placement of the ridge of high pressure throughout mid and late July will have a big impact on production, as that’s when the corn planted in the two-week period would be moving through reproduction.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6- to 10-day forecast points to dry and hot conditions for the majority of the Midwest, even for July.
“Above normal temperatures are expected over the central continental U.S., and to a lesser extent the Southwest and Northeast, with temperatures likely increasing late in the period as the mid-level pattern re-amplifies, potentially bringing extremely hot weather into the central CONUS,” CPC’s forecast for July 19 to 25 shows.
The most recent U.S. Crop Progress report shows corn conditions held steady this week. USDA shows 64% of the crop is rated “good to excellent,” the same as last week’s report. Wisconsin has the best rated crop, with 19% in the excellent category. Drought-plagued North Carolina is showing signs of stress, with USDA rating 21% of the state’s crop as “very poor.”
Rain for the South?
The one piece of good news is potential moisture for the Mid-South and Southeast where flash drought has developed and even more severe drought conditions are growing across the region.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows over the most recent seven-day period:
- The area considered “abnormally dry and above” now sits at 83% of the region, up two percentage points.
- D1, or “moderate drought,” grew to 58% of the region, up four points in a week.
Forecasts show parts of the South and Southeast could see some relief in the coming weeks.
“There has not been as much moisture the last couple of months down here through the Mississippi River Valley. And that’s where things are starting to dry out as well,” says U.S. Farm Report meteorologist Matt Yarosewick. “But over the next 10 days, we are expecting a lot more precipitation here, especially across the Southeast with some tropical moisture and a couple stalled out fronts. So hopefully, we’ll get some improvement there with this root zone and with those drought conditions.”
Surplus precipitation is anticipated again in the Southeast, although there is less model agreement than with other features, the CPC’s forecast says.
“The European ensemble mean is somewhat farther southeast with the heavy precipitation anomaly than the GEFS and the Canadian ensemble means, but the European solution is generally favored since it fits the mid-level pattern better than the others,” the CPC’s forecast shows for the next two weeks.
