Inflation
While some producers managed to stay profitable in 2025, most struggled under tight margins, making them the exception rather than the rule, according to ag lender Alan Hoskins.
While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, the outgoing president and CEO favors a pause on interest-rate reductions while noting AI’s potential to shift labor needs
Will 2026 be a repeat of 2016? Chris Barron, Ag View Solutions, shares four strategies to help farmers capture some profit in this down cycle.
Farm economists say today’s ag slowdown “isn’t a collapse, but it’s a grind.” From trade woes to rising costs and consolidation, experts warn recovery could take time, even as livestock markets stay strong.
Farm Journal’s September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found nearly half of the ag economists surveyed say the U.S. ag economy is worse off than a month ago and will remain depressed or even worsen over the next 12 months.
With most input prices still record or near-record high, farmers in parts of the country have seen eroding balance sheets for four straight years. Now the concern is more farmers will be forced out of farming this year, unless they see some type of market or government intervention.
On the surface, strong livestock prices and government payments are painting a rosy picture for the farm sector. A closer look at input costs, commodity prices and interest rates says otherwise.
The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, and 85% think the situation will accelerate consolidation on farms and among agribusinesses.
Trump recently signed three executive orders imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This marks the first time a president has used powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.
According to the January 2025 Food Price Outlook, egg prices saw the biggest spike, up 37% year-over-year. When you look ahead, USDA expects outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to continue to cause egg prices to climb.
Yes, the Fed is cutting interest rates but the agency can only influence mid- and long-term rates. Concerns about inflation are pushing those rates back up again.
Democratic National Convention begins Monday in Chicago. The cost of Vice President Harris’ new proposals is uncertain, but the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates the plan would increase deficits by $1.7 trillion over the next decade.
Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to propose several economic measures aimed at addressing key voter concerns such as housing and grocery costs with a federal ban on price gouging.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee provided several key insights into the current economic landscape and potential future monetary policy actions.
The Federal Reserve has four more chances this calendar year to cut interest rates. Since July 2023, the system has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Agriculture can sometimes act as a buffer during broader economic recessions, as demand for essential food items tends to remain relatively stable. However, when multiple indicators align in the industry, it can signal a recession.
The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday added to a mild increase in producer prices in July in suggesting that inflation was firmly back on a downward trend. That should allow the U.S. central bank to focus more on the labor market amid growing concerns of a sharp slowdown.
A new Kansas City Fed report shows farm incomes continued to weaken, particularly in crop-heavy states like Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, while cattle prices provided some support.
Recessions often lead to decreased demand for certain agricultural products, particularly those considered discretionary, such as cotton, dairy, specialty meat products and vegetables. This can result in lower prices for these commodities, affecting farmers’ revenues.
Farm Credit Services of America and Frontier Farm Credit released their benchmark farmland values report showing a 2.4 percent decline in cropland values.
USDA’s current net farm income forecasts show a $90-billion plus drop over the two-year period, making it the largest dollar value loss, adjusted for inflation, that agriculture has ever seen.
Top Federal Reserve officials said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank is “closer” to cutting interest rates given inflation’s improved trajectory and a labor market in better balance, remarks that set the stage for a first reduction in borrowing costs in September.
New research finds the surge in grocery prices was driven mainly by substantial increases in commodity prices and supermarket wages, rather than price gouging.
Headwinds in interest rates, inflation and commodity prices seem to have little impact on land values, though single-digit decreases in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio have been reported.
The Federal Reserve voted to keep the benchmark interest rate steady despite a sticky inflation proving to be a challenge. Where could interest rates go? A conversation with Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed.
The May Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found even with improved commodity prices over the past month, ag economists’ views on the net farm income picture slightly eroded, falling to $110.4 billion in May.
The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor projects a major drop in net farm income this year. Economists are also growing more pessimistic about the potential for interest rate cuts in 2024.
Despite the markets pricing in lower interest rates, Arlan Suderman expects inflation to rear its ugly head sometime in 2024.