Latest News From Inflation

Despite the markets pricing in lower interest rates, Arlan Suderman expects inflation to rear its ugly head sometime in 2024.

From the election to world trade, as well as geopolitical factors that have the potential to shape agriculture in 2024, the December Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor shows the possibility of several economic surprises.

Analysts say an initial cut could be made as early as first quarter 2024. One of the key factors the central banking system will consider is whether its inflation rate target of 2% has been achieved.

Farmers are opting to tap into their savings from recent prosperous years instead of taking out loans at the highest interest rates since 2007, according to surveys conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks.

While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., some doubt the country's biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months.

Meanwhile, service prices and the core index (which excludes food and energy) remain high, with the core CPI descending to 4.8%.

The CPI for May shows egg prices experienced the largest monthly drop in 72 years, but the price consumers are paying for a dozen eggs is still well above average over the past 10 years.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and signaled it may pause further increases. In an overt shift, the central bank no longer says it "anticipates" further rates will be needed.

The causal link between the Federal Reserve discount rate and inflation is obvious to all serious armchair economists, but calls for an impending recession in the U.S. are missing a few details. John Phipps explains.

Farm Action is asking the FTC to explore why the nation's largest egg company is seeing record-high profits while consumers pay record-high prices. Ag economists say the jump in egg prices is simply supply and demand.

The Labor Department showed annual inflation cooled in December, with food prices up 0.3%. And while some food costs are showing improvement, the cost of eggs has spiked since last year.

Experts say the Fed is looking for signs of weakness in the economy before deciding interest rates have been raised sufficiently to curb inflation. Some signs are available now, says Vince Malanga, LaSalle Economics.

Global inflation will likely decrease to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast.

USDA raised its consumer food price forecast again, to 8.5% to 9.5% for 2022. The agency had initially predicted a 2% to 3% rise in prices. Eggs, fats and oils, and poultry prices are making the biggest gains.

The consensus ahead of the FOMC report is a jump of 0.5 percentage points, says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk. But what should the Fed actually do?

From record-high gas and diesel prices on the road to a major spike in the price Americans paid for their Memorial Day weekend barbecue essentials, shoppers are seeing price spikes everywhere they go.