China
Trump postpones his China summit, citing ongoing Middle East tensions and the need to remain in Washington, while officials say China is supportive of rescheduling the meeting.
Beyond China’s political goodwill purchases and Brazil’s soybean showdown, the U.S. is eyeing a 30% surge in domestic processing. To stay resilient, farmers are advised to focus on profit margins rather than volume.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
USDA will deliver $11 billion in one-time bridge payments to help farmers offset 2025 trade disruptions and rising costs. Eligible producers must verify 2025 acreage reports by Dec. 19, with payments expected by Feb. 28, 2026.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says China is making progress on its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans, hitting the “correct cadence,” with purchases expected to wrap by February 2026 — underscoring ongoing trade commitments and support for farmers.
China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans is facing questions over timing, storage capacity and price competitiveness, leaving markets uncertain whether the full promise can be met before year-end.
A new report spotlights how agricultural acquisitions and business strategy linked to the Chinese government have amassed production and power, and it’s being called into question by policy thinktank America First Policy Institute (AFPI).
The White House says China will buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028, plus resume U.S. sorghum and hardwood log imports, clearing confusion over comments from Secretary Bessent.
Details are minimal so it’s not clear how there will be enough staff to provide the Milk Production, Crop Production, Cattle on Feed and WASDE reports with many still furloughed.
In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly 27 million metric tons of soybeans to China.
As the two countries battle over trade tariffs, China reportedly buys three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, its first purchase in months.
Arlan Suderman says the U.S. is strengthening ties with Argentina to counter China’s growing influence — a global strategy that’s leaving many U.S. farmers and ranchers feeling sidelined.
Farm economists say today’s ag slowdown “isn’t a collapse, but it’s a grind.” From trade woes to rising costs and consolidation, experts warn recovery could take time, even as livestock markets stay strong.
Kevin Marcus gives insights from U.S. to South America to China growing and harvest seasons.
With the loss of Chinese demand, U.S. ag is searching for its next “shining star.” Researchers at Iowa State may have found it for soybeans: the road beneath your feet and the refineries needed to fuel your truck or car.
The Farm Journal September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor makes it clear: Working capital is thinning, export markets are shaky and long-term crop margins could get ugly. But for now, one thing is still keeping its strength: Americans’ appetite for beef.
Sec. Rollins pointed to inflation, high yields and the stalled talks with China as reasons for a year of projected losses for farmers.
Steve Censky, chief executive officer of the American Soybean Association, says unless China buys soybeans soon, they may be looking at aid similar to the Market Facilitation Program used back in 2018-19 during the last trade war.
Steve Censky, CEO of the American Soybean Association says, “China imports more soybeans than the rest of the world combined and so you can’t make up the loss of the China market by gaining a little bit here or there.”
With $8 cash soybean bids in the Dakotas and Minnesota, and no bids for fall in a few markets, farmers might need to break the norm and store soybeans.
The Chinese government is continuing to instruct importers to avoid purchasing U.S. soybeans. Until that changes, soybean prices are likely to remain low.
President Trump is urging China to buy more U.S. soybeans as they face a shortage, but analysts say quadrupling soybean orders is ‘highly unlikely.’
In what it calls a comprehensive action plan for agriculture security, USDA unveiled seven critical areas the Trump administration will address, and securing and protecting U.S. farmland from being owned by China topped that list.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was questioned by several House Ag Committee members about USDA’s cuts, including the impact of the 6,000 DOGE firings at the agency, that were later reinstated by the court.
“Let’s just put it this way, things are happening this spring we’ve never seen before,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX.
The stakes are high with the latest trade war. While the risks of losing more market share into China are a concern, the upside potential of a trade deal with China could be monumental.
The tit-for-tat on tariffs between the U.S. and China continues, with China announcing on Friday a new rate of 125%, which is up from the 84% announced earlier this week. That pushes the tariff on U.S. pork and pork variety meat to 172%. The new soybean tariff is more than 150%.
As the trade war heats up, the reality is China is still the top export destination for U.S. farmers, even if the country isn’t buying as many soybeans as 2018.