Ag Economists Monthly Monitor
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey, administered by Farm Journal, is sent monthly to agricultural economists nationwide to gauge perspectives on important drivers of agriculture.
Rising input costs and geopolitical tensions drive growing pessimism among ag economists, though views differ on how the industry is being reshaped, according to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
Shrinking equity, rising nitrogen costs and continued global upheaval signal a reckoning for corn growers and a shift to soybeans — especially if higher biomass-based blending diesel mandates come through.
The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows high input costs, weak prices, policy uncertainty and eroding trust in data have pushed many producers from planning for profitability to fighting for survival.
As fertilizer prices emerge as a top threat to profitability, analysts highlight structural supply issues and global trade shifts that leave little room for price relief despite growing domestic frustration.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
Research and polling suggests the money will go toward operating costs, paying down debt, and not be eyed for machinery purchases.
China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans is facing questions over timing, storage capacity and price competitiveness, leaving markets uncertain whether the full promise can be met before year-end.
Wheat acres are expected to decline, and little change is anticipated for cotton acres after a drop in 2025.
USDA says anticipated trade aid could be announced the first week of December, but ag economists are split on whether payments would provide relief or worsen lingering risks such as high input costs and market distortions.
Going into the final weeks of the year, many growers across the country are shouldering significant financial strain from land rent payments, rising input costs, and efforts to stay in business and viable until commodity prices improve.
Producers nationwide face thin or negative margins, rising input costs and economic pressure not seen in decades — forcing some to make the tough choice of whether they can afford to keep farming.
Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist.
Here’s how accelerated consolidation could change the way agriculture looks in the future.
Farm economists say today’s ag slowdown “isn’t a collapse, but it’s a grind.” From trade woes to rising costs and consolidation, experts warn recovery could take time, even as livestock markets stay strong.
The Farm Journal September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor makes it clear: Working capital is thinning, export markets are shaky and long-term crop margins could get ugly. But for now, one thing is still keeping its strength: Americans’ appetite for beef.
There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but we might not see it completely turn around for two to three years,” says Grant Gardner, University of Kentucky ag economist.
Farm Journal’s September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found nearly half of the ag economists surveyed say the U.S. ag economy is worse off than a month ago and will remain depressed or even worsen over the next 12 months.
Fifty-three percent of agricultural economists surveyed in the July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor say the row crops side of agriculture is currently in a recession, which is down from the 72% who responded that way in May.
The April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found most agricultural economists think it could be 2026 before we see Congress final pass a new bill. One reason why is the fact Congress passed $10 billion in ECAP payments late last year.
The stakes are high with the latest trade war. While the risks of losing more market share into China are a concern, the upside potential of a trade deal with China could be monumental.
Agriculture is an export dependent business. At peak uncertainty, the industry could go either way: Gain ground with new trade deals or take a big hit as exports further decline.
The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, and 85% think the situation will accelerate consolidation on farms and among agribusinesses.
With tariffs and trade in focus again, a recent AgWeb poll asked farmers if they support President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating strategy.
The majority of respondents in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war, but who wins? Ag economists say it’s not the U.S., Canada or Mexico but rather Brazil that could come out on top.
Time is running out for USDA to issue economic relief payments to farmers in the 90-day window set by Congress. According to some sources, producers are banking on the payments, even making business decisions based on projected payment calculations.
From tariffs and trade to the possible impact of President Donald Trump’s plan to cut regulations and taxes, ag economists surveyed in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor weigh in on the main factors driving the ag economy in 2025.
Trump recently signed three executive orders imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This marks the first time a president has used powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.
From trade and deregulation to alternative land uses and cash rent prices, ag economists have no shortage of issues on their radar for 2025.