While winter wheat is a crop that seems to have nine lives, the dramatic weather extremes are taking a toll on the crop.
Winter wheat may have already been damaged in January and February due to extreme cold and the lack of snow cover in many areas.
Throw on top of that freezing temperatures at the start of the week and now heat and continued dry conditions, which are stressing the crop.
Freeze Damage Early This Week
Freeze damage was noted in Texas up through Kansas with below freezing temperatures to start the week according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading and a farmer near Dodge City, Kansas, then followed by a huge warm up.
“Out here in Dodge City, Kansas, you know, over the weekend, I woke up Monday morning, I think it was 10 degrees out here. So not what you want to see the middle of March when that growing point starting to come above the surface out here. A lot of vegetation protecting that growing point, I think. But if you drive around these fields out here and you can see some of the damage to the vegetation from that freeze event, then you turn around and we’ve got 90 degree days here coming into the week. So weather is pretty dynamic and wild.”
Already Freeze Damage in January and February
And there was already possible freeze damage in January and February due to the lack of snow cover accordign to Drew Lerner, ag meteorologist with World Weather Inc.:
“And there is some concern that there’s damage done out there. And having a warm and dry spring season is the absolute worst thing to do for a possibly damaged wheat crop. You need it to rain. It’s got to rain a little bit more frequently than usual, and the temperatures need to be kept in a mild regime. Instead, we’re going to be seeing quite the opposite. It’s going to be quite warm at times.”
Drought Monitor Tells the Story
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor is showing 55% of U.S. winter wheat areas in some level of drought which is further stressing the crop according to Huck.
‘Right now the big problem out here in the west regarding weather is drought and will the rains come,” he says.
On Monay the state ratings showed Oklahoma with only 18% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 6% from the previous week and the lowest level since 2018.
In Texas only 15% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 1%.
Lerner says the crop conditions are deteriorating further with the extreme weather. “The temperatures have been so warm that we have evaporated huge amounts of moisture from the soil, leaving that crop limping along.”
Forecast Continues the Pattern
And unfortunately the forecast looks to stay warm and dry for the next 8 to 14 days.
U.S. HRW wheat dryness is expected to intensify through at least next weekend as upper-level high pressure blocks energy and low humidities persist.
That will be accompanied by heat into the weekend and then next Tuesday through Thursday.
A large system likely moves across the central U.S. at some point March 31 - April 5, but it is unclear if it will move slowly with good rains for HRW wheat.
