USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg says the U.S. agricultural trade picture is improving, pointing to a drop in the forecast ag trade deficit from about $50 billion to $29 billion.
Lindberg says USDA now forecasts the deficit to fall 42% from where it started, with fiscal-year performance running even ahead of that pace.
“Since October 1, this government fiscal year, we’re actually down 61% over last year,” he says.
Trade Strategy
Lindberg credits the improvement to President Trump’s trade deals and USDA’s effort to convert new market access into actual export sales.
“The President goes out and negotiates new trade deals around the world. And then Secretary Rollins and I have launched this 3-point plan that’s designed to turn that new market access into market share,” he says.
Record exports in seven markets this year are part of the evidence Lindberg cites to argue the strategy is working. He highlights strong performance in dairy, tree nuts, horticulture, and ethanol.
For example, in the first four months of 2026 U.S. dairy exports reached $3.3 billion, 10% more than the same period in 2025, according to the Dairy Export Council.
U.S. ethanol exports were 13% ahead in the first four months of 2026, compared with the same period in 2025, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.
“So you start to look at the full picture here, and there’s a lot to be excited about,” he says.
Lindberg argues U.S. farmers and ranchers can compete globally when markets are fair, and that reducing non-tariff barriers is helping boost exports.
“Unfortunately, for too long, our farmers and ranchers, as they’ve tried to export their products around the world, have been disadvantaged from one way or another,” he says. “The president has torn a lot of that down through a number of these trade agreements, and we’re seeing the results.”
What It Means For Farmers
He says the ultimate measure of success is whether farmers and ranchers see better prices and profitability.
“The goal is to make them profitable as much as possible back here at home, and give them, really, the returns they deserve for the farming and ranching they’re doing each and every day,” he says.
He adds that producers themselves help drive sales when they participate in trade missions and help tell the story of U.S. agriculture abroad.
“I’ve always said it’s the most effective sales tool we have when we can bring farmers and ranchers around the world,” Lindberg notes. “They can talk about the ways in which they’re producing their crops, how they’re doing it differently than competitors, why their beef is the tastiest on the menu, and that really helps us ink these sales and get things done.”
Next Export Targets
Looking ahead, Lindberg says USDA is focused on trade missions to Ghana, Australia, and Vietnam. He describes Ghana as a gateway to Africa with notable opportunities for poultry.
“It’s a large, growing population center,” he says. “Obviously, the continent is both unified, but also very individualized in terms of the 54 nations that are based there. But we’re expecting about a third of the world’s population to live in Africa by 2050, and so it’s a market that’s really unavoidable for us.”
As a follow up to Trump’s negotiation for greater access for U.S. beef to Australia, Lindberg eyes opportunities there.
The U.S. has a roughly $200 billion trade deficit with Vietnam across all goods, not just agriculture. Lindberg says that creates room for U.S. ag exports to grow, with Vietnam already buying tree nuts, cotton, wheat, corn and ethanol.
China Still Matters
Lindberg also said China remains a major market even as USDA looks to diversify export opportunities.
“Over the last 10 years, we’ve averaged about $18 billion in sales to China. The President’s deal right now locks in $30 billion for the next three years,” he says. “That’s a pretty good increase in overall scope and size on that one deal alone.”
China remains a major piece of the export picture, even as USDA pushes to build demand in other markets.
